A year and a half ago, the unthinkable happened in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District.
Joe Cunningham, a Democrat who had never run for elected office, won a U.S. House seat that national analysts thought he could never win.
The electoral territory along South Carolina's southeastern coastline, with its mix of retirees, veterans, suburbanites and newcomers, was red for nearly 40 years. For a Democrat, the district should have been inhospitable.
This is where President Donald Trump triumphed over Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points in 2016, and where Republicans prefer to call themselves conservatives. This is where fiscal issues still matter and protecting the environment is a priority among Republicans and Democrats.Â
Analysts gave the GOP a built-in, 10-point advantage in the 2018 midterm contest, and labeled the district "safe Republican."
But overnight in November 2018 and by just 1 percentage point, Cunningham turned the tables. He screamed when he was declared the winner shortly after 2 a.m. the next day.
Republicans watched in disbelief as a once-reliable seat in Congress slipped away. It was one of the biggest upsets in the midterm cycle.
Almost as soon as the seat was lost, the fight to win it back began.
The S.C. GOP began discussing plans for a "1st District reclamation project" one month after the election. By the following summer, it was up and running, making it the earliest start to a victory program in state party history, according to Chairman Drew McKissick.
Now the June 9 Republican primary is setting the stage for what is expected to be a fierce fight against Cunningham in the fall.
Already, pressure is mounting among GOP voters who are anxious to get it right.
"It's indicative of the overall challenge for Republicans to win back the House in that it's not at all that clear that Cunningham is a goner," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan University of Virginia newsletter covering U.S. campaigns and elections.
"The race is a toss-up, and if Republicans aren't winning this seat, it's hard to see them winning others," he said.
Four Republicans believe they are the best candidate to lead the party to victory in November: Bikers for Trump founder Chris Cox; Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing; state Rep. Nancy Mace of Daniel Island; and Bluffton housing official Brad Mole.
All were quick to voice their opposition to offshore drilling off South Carolina's coast, an issue their party's congressional candidate struggled to overcome in 2018.
Each offers a disparate vision for how they would lead in Washington, but almost all claim they can be a "unifier" after the 2018 contest nearly tore Republicans in the district apart.
Unity to win
In 2018, the race came down to 3,982 votes and Charleston County — the most populous county and the only one Republican Katie Arrington lost in the district that wraps around parts of Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester, Colleton and Beaufort counties.
A map of the results looks like an abstract painting, with splatters of red and dollops of blue.Â
Anger spilled out during Arrington's concession speech, exposing the fractured party that remained.
"We lost because Mark Sanford could not understand that this race was about the conservative movement — and not about him," Arrington said at the time, blaming the incumbent she beat in the primary for her own general election loss.
So when this year's GOP contenders appeared together in person for the first time at a recent East Cooper Republican forum, their pitches focused on how they see a path to victory in November. All but one kept their jabs subtle.
Republican candidate Brad Mole is running for the South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District seat Monday, May 18, 2020, in Mount Pleasant. Grace Beahm Alford/Staff
As the only African American in the race, Mole, 43, said he could expand the Republican base among voters of color in ways his colleagues could not.Â
Mace, 42, said she can bring the party together and raise the serious dollars needed for a top national race.
Landing, 57, said she is the best candidate to win back the suburban moms Republicans lost.
And 54-year-old Cox, who appeared in a suit and tie rather than his usual leather biker cut, said his grassroots organizing chops would garner support from blue collar workers and veterans.
"The only thing that can keep Republicans from winning this seat is a lack of unity, period," McKissick said.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which is the top fundraising arm of House Republicans, does not get involved in primaries, but is paying attention to what happens.
The seat is crucial to their national strategy to win back the majority in the House in 2020. "We still see it as a top pick-up opportunity," NRCC spokeswoman Camille Gallo confirmed. "That hasn't changed for us."
Despite high national interest in the race, primary polling in contest has been scarce.Â
The latest poll from First Tuesday Strategies, a South Carolina conservative consulting firm, surveyed 500 likely voters about a general election match-up not the current primary fight.
The survey showed either Mace or Landing narrowly beating Cunningham in the general, but also showed those leads were well within the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error. Mace had a 1.35 percent advantage, and Landing had a slightly higher 1.66 percent lead over Cunningham.
The survey also did not ask voters about the two other Republican candidates in the contest, and its respondents skewed older and Republican.
Still, Mace and Landing jumped on the findings as the June 9 primary nears.
Landing penned a Facebook post proclaiming the results "reaffirmed" her as the best Republican to take on Cunningham, while Mace sent a fundraising email telling her supporters, "This race is ours to win."
The two women have emerged as clear front-runners, and they've been in a messaging war for at least the past four months.
Insiders and outsiders
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the contrast between Mace and Landing has played out largely on billboards, TV spots, digital ads and mailers.
Where Mace is positioning herself as the candidate with the experience, resources and national Republican support needed to win, Landing is trying to present herself as the Lowcountry's conservative — not Washington's.
Republican candidate Kathy Landing is running for the South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District seat Monday, May 18, 2020, in Mount Pleasant. Grace Beahm Alford/Staff
Landing's support in the congressional race comes from a mix of locally known Republican figures and Washington outsiders-turned-influencers, such as Jim DeMint, a former U.S. senator and past Heritage Foundation president and the political arm of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
By contrast, Mace has already clinched the endorsement of the top two ranking members of House Republican leadership: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La.
Mace said there's an understanding that the candidate needs to be bankable.
"The nominee is going to have to raise a minimum of $3 million in three to four months to win this seat back," she said. "Joe Cunningham already has $2.6 million. We need a candidate with the right organization, the right fundraising energy and work ethic to win this seat back."
Republican candidate Nancy Mace is running for the South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District seat Monday, May 18, 2020, in Mount Pleasant. Grace Beahm Alford/Staff
When the Club for Growth PAC sunk $410,000 into the district on an ad that characterized Mace as a person Trump can trust, Landing announced she had secured support from more than 20 local officials, including past 1st District congressman Tommy Harnett and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton.
"I proudly admit that I'm not the favored candidate of the Washington special interests but rather that I am the trusted, business-minded conservative unifying Republicans in our district to beat Joe Cunningham," Landing said in a statement.Â
South Carolina Republican strategist Walter Whetsell said the messaging war between Landing and Mace is a classic dynamic in a GOP primary: Experience vs. fresh perspective; insider vs. outsider.
"Experience can be an albatross, and whoever is playing this game is gambling on their side of it," he said.
But every Republican in this contest is making a bet on Trump.
Riding the Trump train
When Cox got his turn at the Mount Pleasant podium a few days ago to make a statement to East Cooper Republicans, he opted to go on the attack.
Republican candidate Chris Cox is running for the South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District seat Monday, May 18, 2020, in Mount Pleasant. Grace Beahm Alford/Staff
Without evidence, he accused Mace of being fired from the Trump campaign, even though she has denied the accusation in interviews. He also promised he will be ramping up his aggressive style.
"I'm going to be more like Donald Trump, and I'm going to go after my opponents," Cox said in a recent Facebook Live video, which have become staples of his grassroots campaign style.
In this race, all of the four candidates are going to great lengths to align their message with the president and his administration.Â
It's why Mace is highlighting her time on the Trump campaign in 2016 and highlighting the moment when Vice President Mike Pence called her "an extraordinary American" during his appearance at The Citadel this spring.
Landing has shared stories of being called a "mini-Trump" and she's dubbed a poll showing Mace in the lead "fake news" since it was conducted by the conservative Club for Growth PAC, which has endorsed Mace.
McKissick, the state GOP leader, said the dynamics of a presidential election will be a boost in a district where Cunningham voted to impeach the president.
"This is a Trump district. We still think Trump will be a benefit to the top ticket," McKissick said.
Whoever wins the nomination will have the backing of a powerful political machine that is determined to deliver a win for Republicans. The NRCCÂ identified the 1st Congressional District as one of 55 targeted House districts it wants to flip in 2020.
And all of the GOP members of South Carolina’s Washington delegation have committed to the state party's effort to win back the seat, including U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham.