GUV Debate online01.jpg (copy)

Greenville businessman John Warren (left) and Gov. Henry McMaster meet in a Republican gubernatorial runoff debate on Wednesday at the Newberry Opera House. Andrew Whitaker/Staff

COLUMBIA — Two polls released Friday show very different potential outcomes for Tuesday's Republican governor primary runoff.

Robert Cahaly, who runs the Georgia-based pollster Trafalger Group and is a supporter of Gov. Henry McMaster's campaign, tweeted Friday he has the governor at 54 percent and Greenville businessman John Warren at 37 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

He said he targets likely runoff voters, who tend to be older.

Cahaly's results mimic those of other internal polls shared this week with The Post and Courier from sources who declined to be named because they were not authorized to release the data.

Meanwhile, Warren pollsters — Florida-based Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — have the challenger ahead 46 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided.

Fabrizio worked on Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. The firm said it thought Warren's message as a political outsider was reaching voters, while McMaster has stagnated.

The Tuesday runoff is expected to be close.

McMaster was the top vote-getter in the five-candidate June 12 GOP primary with 42 percent of support to Warren's 28 percent.

Sign up for updates!

Get the latest political news from The Post and Courier in your inbox.

But Warren got a boost when the primary's third- and fourth-place finishers, Mount Pleasant attorney Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant, backed the political newcomer along with the top six finishers in a Republican congressional primary in the Upstate.

McMaster is countering with visits from President Donald Trump on Monday in Cayce and Vice President Mike Pence in Conway on Saturday. The visits are rewards for the governor being the first statewide elected official in the nation to endorse Trump's 2016 presidential run.

Warren is expected to dominate in the GOP voter-rich Upstate, while McMaster is looking to build on the leads he netted elsewhere in the primary.

Turnout on Tuesday is expected to be low, perhaps under 10 percent. The winner faces Democrat state Rep. James Smith in the fall.

Follow Shain on Facebook and Twitter

Columbia Bureau Chief

Shain runs The Post and Courier's team based in South Carolina's capital city. He was editor of Free Times and has been a reporter and editor for newspapers in Charlotte, Columbia and Myrtle Beach.