COLUMBIA — The high-profile U.S. Senate race in South Carolina is locked in a dead heat, with a second consecutive nonpartisan poll showing Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison are effectively tied for the lead.
The latest poll out Thursday from Quinnipiac University found that both Graham and Harrison have support from 44 percent of registered voters in South Carolina, with an additional 9 percent of voters undecided.
"He has been a firebrand advocate for national defense and a leader of his party for 17 years — but has Lindsey Graham's allegiance to the president put him in jeopardy?" said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy. "The numbers suggest his tenure on the Hill is in trouble."
Most of the voters who named a preferred candidate — 85 percent— said their minds are made up, while 13 percent said they might change their minds.
Earlier this week, a poll from Morning Consult gave Graham a single point lead over Harrison, but they were statistically tied given that the lead was within the poll's margin of error. These nonpartisan independent polls come on the heels of two Democratic internal polls released last week showing a similarly tight race.
Harrison campaign spokesman Guy King said the polls illustrate "the energy that Jaime Harrison and this campaign feel on the ground each and every day across South Carolina."
"Voters here are fed up with a senior senator who after 25 years has lost all touch with the struggles facing families here," King said. "South Carolinians are looking to elect an official in this seat who once again leads with their values and integrity."
Graham's campaign spokesman, T.W. Arrighi, said they "learned long ago not to put much confidence in media polls or outside groups who don't understand South Carolina politics." The campaign also questioned the poll's sample, arguing it estimated too few voters in South Carolina identify as Republican.
"It's not our goal to generate buzz or clicks, but to win a campaign," Arrighi said. "And our internal polling shows we are on track to accomplish that goal."
Voters in the Quinnipiac poll were relatively split on Graham's job performance, with 43 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. By contrast, South Carolina's other Republican senator, Tim Scott, had 55 percent job approval with only 22 percent of voters saying they disapprove.
While Harrison's extensive TV ads have made voters more familiar with him, several data points in the poll indicate the race remains largely a referendum on Graham.
The majority of Harrison's supporters said the main reason they are planning to vote for him is because they dislike Graham, while 25 percent said it's because they like Harrison and 13 percent said it's because he's the Democratic nominee.
A significant number of voters — 37 percent — said they still haven't heard enough about Harrison to form an opinion of him. Of those who had heard about Harrison, 38 percent had a favorable view of him while 24 percent had an unfavorable view.
Both the Quinnipiac and Morning Consult polls found Republican President Donald Trump has a 5 percentage point lead over Democratic nominee Joe Biden in South Carolina. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 14 percentage points in the state.
The poll also found voters are split on Graham's close relationship with Trump, with 40 percent saying Graham is "too supportive" of the president, 39 percent saying he has the "right attitude" towards him and 10 percent saying he's not supportive enough.
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted by phone from July 30 to Aug. 3, surveying 914 registered voters in South Carolina with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The sample was weighted to match the demographic makeup of the state's population by county, gender, age, education and race.
