If you combine the tax cuts and spending bill of the Trump administration (near the top of an economic cycle) with the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds by China, you get rising interest rates.
Thirty-year mortgage rates are typically 1.6 percent over the 10-year Treasury bond rate, which is hitting multi-year highs. It is likely to stagger the real estate market and the stock market. Stock prices are strongly influenced by long-term interest rates. Note also that new hiring came in about 50,000 below projections last month.
It’s getting harder and harder to find people and grow your way out of the problem with the retirement of about 300,000 baby boomers every month.
Maybe I should become a headhunter. No, at 74, I don’t want anything to do with American capitalism.
William A. Johnson