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Commentary: Conspiracies and the new America

Solomon D. Stevens (copy) (copy) (copy) (copy)

Solomon D. Stevens 

America has changed in significant and disturbing ways in the 25 years since I first read Daniel Pipes’ book, “The Hidden Hand.” In it, he argued that many nations in the Middle East were dominated by conspiracies and that this made them systemically unstable. I remember thinking at the time that America was fundamentally different from these regimes and that conspiracies could never take hold here. We were better.

I was very wrong. In a breathtakingly short period of time, the United States has weakened significantly — perhaps in ways that are beyond repair. Belief in conspiracies is no longer limited to small, fringe groups that can be easily dismissed. Wild, baseless conspiracies are now mainstream. It frightens me, and it should frighten you.

What really holds a country together? It it the laws? Is it the religion? Is it the virtue of the people? In the final analysis, it involves a number of complex elements. But ultimately it all depends on what I call social trust. Without it, a government cannot stand.

A recent poll of the Public Religion Research Institute found that 15% of all Americans and 23% of Republicans believe in the fundamentals of QAnon, that “the government, media and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.” To put this into context, 15% of the U.S. population is about 49 million people, which, as the founder of the PRRI points out, is close to the estimated number of evangelicals in the country. In other words, this is a politically significant number.

But QAnon represents only one brand of conspiracy. The Washington Post recently reported that political scientists Eric Oliver and Thomas Wood had concluded that about half of Americans believe in conspiracies of one kind or another. Examples include the so-called “truther” conspiracy about who attacked the Twin Towers on 9/11, the belief that the FDA is intentionally holding back cures for cancer and the conspiracy belief that the Federal Reserve intentionally caused the 2008 recession.

Belief in conspiracies undermines trust. If Satan-worshipping pedophiles secretly control the government, then why would we believe anything coming from the government? We would be tempted to look for a truth-giver, a savior. This is why demagogues promote belief in conspiracies. They say things like, “Just remember that what you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” The demagogue asserts that the average person has no independent access to reliable facts: Truth can come from only one person.

I use the term “conspiracy mentality” rather than “conspiracy theory,” because the word “theory” isn’t appropriate when talking about those who believe in conspiracies. Theories are constructs grounded in research, facts and logic. For example, evolution is a theory, but it is not just something that some people “believe.” In addition, those with a conspiracy mentality are not defined by their belief in a single conspiracy; they are susceptible to belief in multiple conspiracies, some of which may even contradict one another. It makes no sense to argue with someone who believes these things; fact-checking does not convince them, logic makes no difference. Those to whom these notions appeal have a psychological need for them.

And those with a conspiracy mentality lack social trust. They see the world as moved by what Daniel Pipes called a “hidden hand.” Forces that cannot be seen or controlled are wielded by people behind the scenes who cannot be held accountable or controlled. The deep state is responsible. Satan is behind it. Some ethnic, racial or religious group is enabling it. People who we do not know but who have significant power are trying to hurt us.

Just think about all the ways in which social trust has eroded in recent years. For those with a conspiracy mentality, law itself is suspect; it is being manipulated by some hidden hand. The news media are seen as hopelessly biased and unreliable. Medical professionals are part of a conspiracy to promote a fake narrative about a disease. The election has been stolen. Our teachers are working to destroy the country.

A country needs social trust to survive, so it is important to recognize how much the conspiracy mentality has grown. The more people believe that a “hidden hand” controls us, the weaker our government becomes and the more susceptible we are as a nation to the next person who comes along offering to be our political savior.

Solomon D. Stevens received his doctorate in political science from Boston College. His two books are “Challenges to Peace in the Middle East” and “Religion, Politics, and the Law,” which he co-authored.

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