MIAMI -- The first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season formed Friday in the Western Caribbean, but forecasters can't yet say if it will pass over the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the depression had winds of about 35 mph. Most storm prediction models show it traveling over the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and into the southern Gulf by Monday, hurricane center specialist Michael Brennan said.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, which separates the Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of Mexico.

It's too early to tell if the storm will hit the northeastern part of the Gulf, Brennan said.

Some models have the storm heading toward the spill, but others do not, and forecasters can't speculate about what rough weather would do to oil in the water, Brennan said.

The depression is on track to reach the peninsula late today.

The effort to capture the oil gushing from the sea bottom could be interrupted for up to two weeks if a storm forces BP to move its equipment out of harm's way, said Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the government's point man on the crisis.