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Beach walkers look for shells washed ashore by Hurricane Dorian as it tracked away from Folly Beach. While the storm largely spared S.C., Dorian’s rapid intensification and stall over the Bahamas follows the trend of more powerful and slower hurricanes. Matthew Fortner/Staff

Matthew Fortner/Staff

You’re seeing the Post and Courier’s weekly and breaking storm newsletter, Hurricane Wire. We walk you through what’s brewing in the Atlantic, what the experts are saying this season, some history from past storms and even provide special maps and data visualizations to help you make sense of it all. Sign up here.

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A storm is whirling in the Atlantic that just passed the Southeast offshore.

It will take a smack at mid-Atlantic and New England states this weekend as a high-wind-and-heavy-rain Nor'easter coastal storm, if not an extra-tropical cyclone — something similar to a tropical storm.

Federal forecasters were watching a storm that fell apart off Florida.

Super Typhoon Hagibis is racing toward landfall in Japan with winds stronger than 140 mph.

It's powerful enough to be pushing large surf into the west coast of the United States more than 3,000 miles away.

So, no, this hurricane season hasn't quieted down.

Leading computer model runs suggest the next potential Atlantic hurricane will be rolling off the West African coast Saturday or Sunday.

Nearly a fourth of the hurricanes that have formed in recent decades did so after Oct. 7, said Phil Klotzbach, leading scientist of the benchmark Tropical Meteorology Project.

But the season is shifting. Cooler air is moving off the Southeast, dropping the sea surface temperatures that would feed heat to hurricanes, said meteorologist Shea Gibson, with the forecasting company WeatherFlow.

"We're now seeing a string of progressive mid-latitude storms moving across the nation," said meteorologist Bob Henson, with the forecasting company Weather Underground. "As long as these continue, they will tend to keep any potential tropical threats away from the Southeast coast."

What's brewing

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We're keeping an eye on two systems to the northeast, but neither has high chances of developing into a cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast.

Conditions: Winds continue to pull apart storms coming off Africa or push them north into open seas.

Computer models: Suggest the monsoon storm expected to come off Africa this weekend will drift into the open Atlantic. But that forecast is on the far end of the time range and not reliable.

Outlook: Sea surface temperatures are dropping below the 80-degree Fahrenheit mark traditionally considered the heat needed to fire up hurricanes. But storms have emerged in somewhat cooler seas. The Gulf of Mexico is still plenty warm enough to stir up a storm.

What we're talking about

Where October hurricanes strike

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Storms are less likely to hit this month than during the late summer — but still, they come! A Post and Courier analysis of the National Hurricane Center's HURDAT database reveals that October landfalls near Charleston aren't as rare as you might think. Still, western Florida appears the most vulnerable. (Bryan Brussee/Staff)

Hurricane Wire is a pop-up newsletter during hurricane season that delivers anyone who lives on the East Coast all the information they need to know as storms brew in the Atlantic and beyond.


Hurricanes in history

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The storm surge from Hurricane Hazel shattered boats and buildings in Swansboro, N.C., on Oct. 15, 1954. The most intense hurricane of that year, the deadly category 4 storm splintered buildings along the coast of the Carolinas and felled trees on the U.S. Capitol grounds in Washington, D.C. File/AP

Your questions, answered

Have a question about how hurricanes work, how we cover them or any other storm-related inquiry? Reply to this email and we may feature your question in an upcoming newsletter!

Reach Bo Petersen at @bopete on Twitter or 843-937-5744.