Factors favor GOP in governor races

WASHINGTON — Never before have so many governorships been up for grabs — and with so much at stake.

The races come just ahead of once-in-a-decade congressional and legislative redistricting to reflect the U.S. population of the 2010 census, a process in which governors will play a central role. Of the 37 governorships on the ballot, more than half are open seats. And many of the contests are in prime 2012 presidential battleground states.

Democrats control 26 governorships and must defend 19 in November. Sheer math, the sour economy and historical trends favoring the out-of-power party in midterm elections suggest big Republican statehouse gains.

'We are now tasked with remaking the political map,' proclaims the website of the Republican Governors Association, headed by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a potential presidential candidate.

Republicans are hoping for eight or more pickups. 'We can't wait until 2012 to start taking our country back,' Barbour said.

Democrats are striving to minimize losses and pull off some upsets.

'We knew it was going to be a tough year just by virtue of the fact that we elected a Democrat to the White House in 2008,' said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. 'History shows the president's party loses 5.5 governors seats in midterm elections.'

Furthermore, the poor economy and growing tea-party activism are weighing on all incumbents and those perceived as establishment candidates.

'In a year like this, no one is safe,' Daschle said.

Underscoring the high stakes: The GOP governors association is poised to spend up to $65 million on the races; its Democratic counterpart, about $50 million.

Republicans' best shot for pickups may be a string of governorships now held by Democrats across Great Lakes and upper Midwestern states, including Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa, as well as Pennsylvania.

Covering the politics of the Lowcountry, South Carolina and the nation.

Democrats have fewer opportunities for gains, although they appear on track to pick up Republican governorships in Hawaii, Connecticut and possibly Minnesota.

These have been particularly trying times for governors. On the front line of the economic crisis, many have been forced to cut services or raise taxes — or both. And they've been bloodied by voter anger and the tea party movement. Unlike the federal government, governors can't print money and many are barred from deficit spending.

Sheer number, sour economy favor GOP in govs races