Scott House run would draw spotlight

While there are no safe bets in politics, here's one that's 99.9 percent certain. Charleston-Berkeley state Rep. Tim Scott will run for the U.S. House rather than for lieutenant governor, guaranteeing that a South Carolina congressional primary will be one of the most closely watched in the nation.

Late last week, Scott was only one-tenth of a percent away from being absolutely sure he would vie for the First District seat which no longer has an incumbent candidate. Henry Brown's recent surprise announcement that he wouldn't seek re-election has dramatically altered the landscape of the GOP primary contest, spurring new entrants and a flurry of speculation about other possible high profile contenders.

In fact, Charleston County Councilman Paul Thurmond, son of the late U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond, has since announced, joining Carroll Campbell III, son of the former governor and his namesake, in what will likely be a crowded seven-way field.

Scott, the only black Republican in the state Legislature, has been running for lieutenant governor for several months, and, he says, feeling good about his chances. But Brown's decision opened the prospect of a race he hadn't previously considered. There's never been any doubt that Scott's decision to run for lieutenant governor was part of a longer-range goal of vying for the state's chief executive. While he recognized that the No. 2 post is mostly ceremonial with little to do when the Legislature is out of session, he also felt it would give voters a chance "to see on display my values and character and to know me better as an elected official."

Voters in Charleston County previously had gotten to know him as a member and chairman of County Council, initially elected countywide. Last year, he won a House seat in a predominately white Republican district. The real contest was in the primary, which he scored a stunning victory by defeating two other contenders without the expected runoff.

Scott has consistently espoused a conservative philosophy, focusing during recent months on the economy, out-of-control government spending, accountability, ethics reform and his concerns about the federal government's increasing interference with state sovereignty. He's concentrated on increasing his visibility in the Upstate and his poll on the lieutenant governor's race showed him ahead with those mostly likely to vote in the primary who had actually chosen a candidate. Only 38 percent had. Of those, Scott had 48 percent.

He said a very recent poll on the congressional race showed him in second place behind Campbell.

Scott says he began seriously considering the congressional race at the urging of some of his strongest supporters including one woman active in Berkeley County Republican politics he first knew decades ago when she was a youth director at the Air Force Base. "She said you are wasting your time running for lieutenant governor when you could do so much good as a congressman. That was a 'wow' to me."

Scott says his Upstate campaign consultant also literally put himself out of a job by advising him that he was a better candidate for Congress than for a ceremonial position. Scott says he had to step back "and see in my own heart where I felt I could make the biggest difference." While recognizing there would be criticism about his decision to switch, he concluded that "win, lose or draw, the bold and harder choice was the best choice."

The only reason he hadn't made it official at this writing, he said, is the need for assurance that he will have the financial resources to be competitive. While he has about $170,000 on hand for the lieutenant governor's race, he can't transfer those funds. Instead, he says, "I have to give it back to get it back." The good news, he says, is that he already has about $100,000 in commitments, estimating the congressional primary will require about $500,000.

Scott is fully aware of the challenge of running against the sons of two Republican icons. "Running against legacy candidates is never easy. But I'm sure both want to stand on their own records and not the records of their fathers. I think the First Congressional District is a place where voters want a blue collar, hard-working Republican who was raised here and is still here."

As for race, some already are trying to play that card, according to Scott,who describes it as a "quagmire that leads nowhere." Actually he said the polls show that "three out of four Republican primary voters think their neighbors would vote for a black candidate."

The framing of that question is viewed as a better gauge of how the person being polled actually feels. Further, the 44-year-old businessman notes that he's been an elected black Republican for the past 14 years without any substantial black vote.

If he were to win the primary he would have the prospect of being not only the second black congressman from this state since Reconstruction, but having a national impact. Currently there are no black Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives.

That's why when "99.9 percent certain'' Scott enters the race, a contest that already has a Thurmond and a Campbell in the mix will have the potential of becoming even more newsworthy.

Barbara S. Williams, editor emeritus of The Post and Courier, may be reached at bwilliams@postandcourier.com.