Boeing 747-8: A boost and a gamble

SEATTLE -- While Boeing struggles to fix and fly its 787 Dreamliner by year-end, another new jetliner from the company looks certain to get into the air sooner.

In the Everett, Wash., wide-body plant late last month, inside the first 747-8 -- the new, larger version of the 747 jumbo jet -- mechanics made finishing touches on the interior as a technician in the cockpit gave the flight controls a workout.

Boeing intends to get the 250-foot giant into the sky this fall.

Program chief Mohammad "Mo" Yahyavi says he aims to have not one but all three of the test-flight 747-8s flying by the end of the year. The three planes will be finished 20 workdays apart, so the first needs to fly by early November to meet his timetable.

That would be a huge morale boost for Boeing's Seattle-area work force.

The 747-8 is a traditionally built Boeing airliner, the anti-787. Its wings are designed and built in Everett from pieces fabricated in Auburn, Wash. Its fuselage is entirely assembled in Everett.

The only problem: Unlike the Dreamliner, the 747-8 doesn't have a lot of sales yet.

Yet, Boeing has faith there's still a place in the market for its iconic jumbo jet, immediately recognizable by the hump of the forward fuselage.

"It's a beautiful airplane. It's an airplane that will be really successful," Yahyavi said. "Boeing decided this is a good business, and we have to go forward with it."

That's a bold gamble.

Customers have ordered only 105 of the freighter and passenger models, compared with 850 Dreamliners. Only Lufthansa has ordered the passenger version.

And near-term sales prospects are poor amid a global aviation downturn that has most airlines looking to cut capacity, not buy new planes.

Boeing last year booked a $685 million charge for the 747-8 program, acknowledging the company will lose at least that much in producing the jet based on its current projection of firm sales.

And that loss factors in only production expenses, not the additional $3 billion to $4 billion Wall Street analyst Joe Campbell of Barclays Capital estimates Boeing spent on research and development the said those issues were overcome, and design of the passenger version is going much more smoothly.

Last year, engineering resources were diverted from the 747-8 to the troubled Dreamliner program, contributing to a nine-month delay in the 747-8 schedule.

Now, as his flight-test program approaches, Yahyavi said he's not worried about resources being hogged by the overlapping Dreamliner flight tests.

He has a separate, dedicated cadre of pilots led by 747 chief pilot Mark Feuerstein for the heavy schedule of test flights.

"We have been working together -- (Boeing's) flight-test organization, the 787 team and the 747-8 team -- to decouple these two programs to make sure everyone is supported with resources and equipment and ground operations and flight operations," Yahyavi said. "It's not 100 percent finalized, but we are getting prepared to put this airplane in flight."