Though not likely, possible upset a concern for Tigers

CLEMSON -- Early season games like Clemson's Saturday opener against Middle Tennessee are viewed as something of preseason affairs for power-conference schools.

For programs like Middle Tennessee, such games offer a chance to produce a moment equivalent to a major first-round upset in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Building upon an ESPN study from last season, non-BCS Football Bowl Subdivision teams are 217-973 against teams from the six power conferences since the BCS was created in 1998.

That's a winning percentage of 18.2, similar to the rate at which No. 14 seeds have defeated No. 3 seeds (16.6 percent) since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985.

Witnessing a Blue Raider celebration in Memorial Stadium Saturday night is a nightmare scenario for Dabo Swinney entering his first full season as head coach. It's why in the palatial, wood-paneled team meeting room of the West Zone complex the No. 1 goal listed is winning the opener. Goal No. 2 skips ahead to winning the Atlantic Division.

Such an upset scenario is unlikely.

The heavily-favored Tigers are deeper, stronger and faster. But thanks in part to the proliferation of spread offenses, non-BCS program wins over power schools increased to 24.2 percent last year.

"Most people can find good skill people and a guy who can sling it around," Swinney said. "It is hard to get good linemen. Spreading people out you don't have to block as long. You can backpedal and be fairly athletic … It gives you more of a fighting chance."

In examining some of the most notable recent upsets there is a common thread: the underdogs often had extra time to prepare as the wins often occurred in season openers or bowl games, and the underdog often featured a variation of the spread offense. Here's a look at several recent upsets:

Sept. 1, 2007: Appalachian State 34, Michigan 32

ASU wasn't even an FBS program, becoming the first Division I-AA program to beat a ranked FBS team. The Wolverines entered with a No. 5 Associated Press ranking.

The defending FCS champs spread the field and allowed quarterback Armanti Edwards to make plays with his arm (227 passing, 3 touchdowns) and with his feet (67 yards, one score). Middle Tennessee also spreads the field and has a run-pass threat in quarterback Dwight Dasher.

Recall despite Edwards' efforts, Appalachian needed to block a last-second field goal to secure the upset win in Ann Arbor.

"Look how Middle Tennessee beat Maryland," Swinney said. "They created turnovers, a huge special teams fake punt set up another score … [Special teams] play is something we worked hard on. I'll be highly disappointed if we don't do well in that area. It's a fake punt, a blocked kick, it's a reverse on a punt return something like that you always have to be in-tune to."

Sept. 15, 2007: Troy 41, Oklahoma State 23

This upset is not as significant as others listed, but it has been studied by the Clemson defensive staff. Tony Franklin was Troy's offensive coordinator and Franklin is now running the offense of another Sun Belt school -- Middle Tennessee.

Jan. 1, 2005: Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7

Urban Meyer's spread-option attack made Alex Smith the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft and landed Meyer the head gig at Florida. Utah became the first non-BCS conference team, not including independents, to land an at-large BCS bowl bid. Two years later, Boise State followed Utah and knocked off Oklahoma, 43-42, in the Fiesta Bowl.

Clemson defensive coordinator Kevin Steele noted the biggest change to the spread in recent years have been elements of Meyer's spread variation proliferating throughout the game -- including some wrinkles expected in the Blue Raiders' package.

Nov. 17, 2007: Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14

Against the Tide, ULM was a 25-point underdog. By comparison Appalachian State was given 23 points in Ann Arbor. Seven of the Sun Belt's nine teams run a spread offense the highest percentage of any conference according to ESPN.

The Sun Belt, the least prestigious conference in the FBS, has also upset Oklahoma St. (Troy 2007), Minnesota (Florida Atlantic 2007), Texas A & M (Arkansas State 2008) and Maryland (Middle Tennessee 2008) during the last two seasons.

Clemson's No. 1 goal is to avoid being next.

Reach Travis Sawchik at tsawchik@postandcourier.com.