Declaring WAR on Heisman

No question. Mixing apples and cranberries is dangerous with so many leftovers around.

But pass the pie and indulge in a delicious stretch drive of the most exciting Heisman Trophy race in years, knowing it's both fun and helpful to look at the six leading candidates through prisms borrowed from baseball and elsewhere.

As the South Carolina state representative for the Heisman Trophy, I help my friends at New York's hallowed Downtown Athletic Club coordinate the 26 voters in our state, an unusually esteemed group that includes a pair of Heisman winners -- Steve Spurrier and George Rogers. This role means having to endure skewed statistics, not a few veteran bores and lots of lobbying (still have my Byron Leftwich bobblehead and Joe Hamilton mousepad).

Ideally, Heisman voters and fans wait until the last minute -- in this case after the games of Dec. 5 -- to decide.

And look beyond conventional stats to consider such things as:

Degree of difficulty

Not all schedules are created equal, even within certain overrated conferences.

1. Toby Gerhart, Stanford senior running back. The Pac-10 is the top-rated conference inside USA Today's patented Sagarin computer, and the Cardinal has the nation's No. 13-rated schedule.

2. C.J. Spiller, Clemson senior running back. The Tigers' schedule is No. 33 and Spiller already has faced three teams ranked among the BCS top 17 (TCU, Georgia Tech and Miami).

3. Mark Ingram, Alabama sophomore running back. The SEC is not, contrary to popular belief in the South, the toughest league. Also, Ingram doesn't play against No. 2 Alabama and has not yet faced No. 1 Florida; no wonder the Tide's schedule ranks only 41st in difficulty.

4. Tim Tebow, Florida senior quarterback. More SEC hype refuted: The Gators have the No. 51-rated schedule. Of course, the Alabama-Florida SEC title game will act as a Heisman semifinal, but Spiller gets another shot at Georgia Tech in the Dec. 5 nightcap.

5. Colt McCoy, Texas senior quarterback. Down year for the Big 12 and few challenges for Texas on its No. 56 schedule.

1. Kellen Moore, Boise State sophomore quarterback. Nice win over Oregon early but the 96th-rated schedule is quite a hurdle.

WAR

Wins Above Replacement is the trendiest analysis from those lovable baseball numbers geeks descended from Bill James and responsible for detonating major league thought and management. WAR attempts to measure the difference between a pitcher's victory total and the projected number of wins for an average replacement player.

Or, in college football, what is the victory difference between Clemson with C.J. Spiller and with Spiller out and replaced by a so-so running back since August?

1. Ingram, 4 wins: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Tennessee, LSU.

2. Tebow, 3: Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina.

3. Spiller, 3: Miami, Florida State, N.C. State.

4. Gerhart, 3: UCLA, Oregon, Southern California.

5. McCoy, 3: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas (not including Thursday night vs. Texas A&M).

6. Moore, 2: Oregon, Louisiana Tech.

UV rating

Unique Value, by comparison.

Each guy does something the other guys cannot or have not done.

1. Tebow's double life. He is a quarterback and fullback in one human body.

2. Gerhart's improvement. Looked like just any good back as Stanford was losing at Wake Forest in early September but no one has been more valuable in November.

3. Ingram's ability to give Alabama's defense plenty of rest. Or why a good defense is tied to a good offense, and vice versa.

4. Spiller's versatility. Which, among other things, produces many unrecorded yards by making foes alter kickoffs and punts.

5. Moore's touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Start with 33 touchdown passes and three interceptions.
   

6. McCoy's leadership. Hard to argue with an NCAA- record 43 wins as a starter.

Big games

1. Gerhart. Ran for 223 yards against Oregon, 178 against Southern California and 136 against California, all this month.

2. Spiller. Dominant in almost all of Clemson's games, but at his best in key wins over Miami and Florida State.

3. Ingram. Fine games in close back-to-back-to-back wins over South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU.
   

4. Tebow. Some nice performances, but among his 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions are seven touchdown throws with no picks against the trio of Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International.

5. McCoy. Went 21 for 39 for 127 yards in the 16-13 squeaker over banged-up Oklahoma.

6. Moore. Effectively managed the Oregon victory: 19 of 29 for 197 yards with one TD.

This year's Heisman officially goes to "the most outstanding college football player in the United States in 2009."

All I am saying … is give WAR a chance.

Reach Gene Sapakoff at gsapakoff@postandcourier.com or 937-5593.