Clemson-FSU Inside the Game

Here's a look at what might make the difference when Clemson (5-3, 3-2 ACC) hosts Florida State (4-4, 2-3) at 7:45 tonight:

Ponder this

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder might be the hottest quarterback in the country. Over the last three games, Ponder, the ACC's leading passer (2,453 yards), has led the Seminoles to 119 points. The second-year starter appears much more comfortable in Jimbo Fisher's complex offense. … Ponder is also a running threat, though he suffered bruised ribs last week against N.C. State and might not be as effective on the ground. He rushed a season-low four times against the Wolfpack. …. Ponder faces the highest-rated pass defense he has played against this season. Clemson ranks first in the ACC in pass yards allowed and fifth nationally (146 yards per game). Clemson also has 15 interceptions, third in the country, and leads the ACC in sacks (22).

Andrews effect

The other interesting matchup is the improving Clemson offense, averaging 42 points per game since Maryland, against FSU's ACC-worst defense. … Longtime Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews announced his retirement this week, which might provide an emotional lift for the worst defense of his tenure. … FSU also has standout linebacker Dekoda Watson back healthy, along with 278-pound senior tackle Budd Thacker, who bolsters an undersized front four (260-pound average). But is it enough? ... The numbers are awful. The undisciplined Seminoles (ACC-high 65 penalties) are allowing an ACC-worst 428.9 yards per game. FSU is allowing 9.64 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 119th out of 120th FBS teams, and 4.8 yards per rush.

Fallout shelter

Whichever team loses this game will need one. A Florida State loss knocks the Seminoles from contention, while increasing pressure on Bobby Bowden to retire. Clemson controls its own destiny in the ACC, but a loss unravels that fragile designation and fuels the here-we-go-again perception.

Outlook

The Seminoles offense is rolling, but Florida State has not faced a secondary as talented as Clemson's. The Tigers' offense has improved and has not faced a FBS defense as poor as FSU's. Clemson also has C.J. Spiller -- with an ESPN audience for a final Heisman push -- and home field. Clemson should gain a stronger hold on the Atlantic.

Prediction

Clemson 34, Florida State 24