A 'no change' Sudan policy

President Obama has adopted a Sudan policy that resembles one he criticized as inadequate when he was a White House candidate. In the place of promised harsh sanctions and a "no fly" zone enforced by military action, he has unveiled a policy of engagement with Sudan based on "incentives and pressures" for ending conflicts in Darfur and southern Sudan.

The president's "new" policy closely resembles the approach taken by President George W. Bush. Candidate Obama denounced that approach as "reckless and cynical." But it may be the only course of action available, given his other objectives.

One of those is maintaining good relations with China, even if it means avoiding the Dalai Lama. China continues to oppose harsh United Nations economic and military sanctions on Sudan. Mr. Obama has evidently decided against trying to go around China.

Embarrassingly, engagement with Sudan means dealing with President Bashir al-Assad, who has been indicted for war crimes in Darfur by the International Criminal Court (ICC). But as retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, the president's special envoy for the Sudan, recently remarked to The New York Times, it would be "impossible" to resolve the conflicts in Darfur and southern Sudan without talking to Khartoum.

The talks will not be easy. Explaining the new policy, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice said, "There will be no rewards for the status quo, no incentives without concrete and tangible progress."

One of the most urgent issues on the agenda with Sudan will be to re-establish safe access by international aid agencies to Darfur's 2.7 million refugees. A month after his indictment by the ICC last spring, President Bashir expelled more than a dozen humanitarian aid agencies.

Remaining aid workers have been threatened. A number have been kidnapped by unidentified bandits, along with two employees of the U.N.-African Union peacekeeping force. Two women from an Irish aid group were released on Oct. 18 after 107 days in captivity, but a French employee of the International Committee of the Red Cross and two Libyan aid workers were then kidnapped.

Will President Obama now be expected to reward Sudan if it restores the aid to refugees Mr. Bashir petulantly cut off? Will engagement succeed in ending Sudan's oppression of its black minorities?

History suggests the prospects are slim.