Tigers: Trying to quantify defensive value

CLEMSON — Trace to Addison Johnson's .208 batting average and it seems clear why the center fielder has been demoted from starter to late- inning defensive replacement as Clemson faces Virginia at 8 p.m. today at the ACC Tournament in Durham, N.C.

Offense is simple to value.

Runs are counted. Uncomplicated formulas produce on-base percentage and slugging percentages. Using those measures, it is clear Johnson has become a liability at bat.

But what of his total value?

The Clemson staff says he is the team's best defensive outfielder. What are his glove and range worth in runs prevented? They are questions not easy to quantify at the college level.

Tom Riginos coaches the Clemson outfielders in addition to his offensive duties. He says Johnson, Jason Stoltz and Brad Miller are above-average defenders. But he admits he doesn't know how valuable they are. He does not know how many runs they save with their range, throwing arms and athletic ability.

"You don't have as many tendencies as in the big leagues," Riginos said.

The attempt to quantify defensive value is an important quest in professional baseball.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays employ their own advanced statistical models, and the Rays credit a large part of their 2008 success to improved defense.

At the college level teams do not have their own statistical secret sauces.

Riginos said Clemson's defensive-related data is limited to spray charts for opposing teams, which are inexact since the sample size is small.

To gauge the range of a defender the staff is limited to rough tools like chances and putouts (Johnson leads in both categories for Clemson outfielders). Advanced metrics like zone rating do not exist at the college level, at least at Clemson where man and computing power is limited.

Still, Clemson coach Jack Leggett says defense is a priority when constructing a lineup.

"(Defense) is not undervalued to me," Leggett said. "I know you have to play good defense. ... If you have got a guy that is a liability defensively he is going to hurt you more than he is going to help you."

Yet this season, Leggett has traded defense for offense.

With the Clemson offense struggling, Leggett benched his top defensive outfielder, Johnson on April 24, moving offensive-minded Wilson Boyd to center and Chris Epps from the bench to designated hitter.

Clemson (39-17) responded by winning 11 of 14 games entering the ACC Tournament.

In a vacuum, Leggett said he would have his best offense performers at the corners (left field, right field, first and third base) and have his best defenders concentrated in the center of the field.

Such a vacuum has not existed this season.

"I think because our offense was struggling we needed to get our best offensive lineup in there," Leggett said. "When we get our best defense out there A.J. is out there. Right now (the offensive lineup) is working for us because we are getting a lot of offense and Boyd is not hurting us."

A National League scout offered an interesting proposal as to how he would handle Clemson's offense- defense tradeoff dilemma.

He would piece together the best defensive lineup for the team's No. 1 and No. 2 starting pitchers (Johnson in center, Epps benched) and create the best offensive lineup possible for No. 3 starters and beyond (Boyd in center, Johnson benched).

The logic: Prevent runs early in a series in what are likely better-pitched games, and outslug later when pitching thins.

Riginos noted the Tigers have used an in-game platoon, preferring to gain leads with their bats then place Johnson in as a defensive sub in the late innings.

Whether the strategy is right or wrong is a matter of belief. At the college game, measuring defensive value is an inexact science.

Reach Travis Sawchik at tsawchik@postandcourier.com and check out his Clemson blog at www.postandcourier.com/blogs/tiger_tracks.