Primary picks a hint at future
Dems and GOP have a lot to gain in 2010
AP
Few expect House Majority Whip James Clyburn to have a serious challenger to his 6th Congressional District seat.
In less than a year, South Carolina voters will pick their party's candidate in a wide-open governor's race and other key primary contests, and their ultimate choices will speak volumes about the directions the state's Democratic and Republican parties are heading.
The Republicans' gubernatorial pick could play an outsize role in a national party still licking its wounds from its 2008 losses. The GOP candidate not only will be the presumed favorite in the fall, but also a potential key player in the 2012 Republican presidential primary.
The Democratic field will illustrate how well that party can build on the relative popularity here of President Barack Obama and whether it can find candidates who can attract more white votes while maintaining the party's black voting base.
The jockeying already has begun with at least six Republicans and four Democrats in varying stages of running for governor. Gov. Mark Sanford is finishing his second term and can't run again.
While that's the liveliest race so far, other important story lines include how much of a battle incumbent U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint will face to retain his seat and whether 1st Congressional District Rep. Henry Brown can prove that his close re-election battle in 2008 was a fluke.
And races for state House seats and dozens of local contests for sheriff, treasurer and county council also could heat up later this year or early next year before the filing deadline in March.
For anyone who enjoys politics, next year shapes up as a midterm election with statewide and local drama, certainly one to watch. Primary elections will take place in June 2010 and the gubernatorial election on Nov. 2, 2010.
Republicans seeking the gubernatorial seat will have to win a consensus without offending ideological groups within their party, such as religious conservatives and fiscal conservatives, said Blease Graham, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.
Whoever wins could be in a key position to influence the outcome of the 2012 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina — a contest won by every successful GOP hopeful for more than two decades.
The candidates include S.C. Attorney General Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, 3rd Congressional District Rep. Gresham Barrett, state Sen. Larry Grooms of Bonneau, state Rep. Nikki Haley and Furman University political science professor Brent Nelsen.
On the Democratic side, the party will continue to struggle to find a candidate who can appeal to black and white voters alike, Graham said. Even Obama's successful get-out-the-vote effort here last year did not give him enough white votes to win the state.
"Historically, there was never any successful political fusion movementin South Carolina, except maybe in Georgetown County. It's always been them and us, black and white politics," Graham said. "The Democratic nominee come November is going to have to get 36 to 38 percent of the white vote. That's a formidable challenge in South Carolina, and that's going to be the test."
The Democratic candidates so far include state Sens. Vincent Sheheen of Camden and Robert Ford of Charleston, Charleston lawyer Mullins McLeod and the Rev. Amos A. Elliott of Charleston.
S.C. Secretary of Education Jim Rex — the only Democrat to win statewide in 2006 — said he will decide by September whether he will join the gubernatorial field or seek re-election.
The quietest of next year's major elections is the contest for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Jim DeMint, who is running for a second six-year term. No one in either party has surfaced as an opponent so far.
"That's kind of South Carolina history: Once we elect a senator, we just keep electing that senator until he — and there's been no she — decides not to run again," Graham said. The state's longtime Senate duo of Fritz Hollings and Strom Thurmond reflected the state's partisan and geographic diversity.
Graham said there's a similar ideological balance with the state's current pair because DeMint, considered among the most conservative voices in the Senate, contrasts markedly with Sen. Lindsey Graham, who prides himself on being willing to reach out to senators in the Democratic Party.
"On that basis, it's hard to challenge him (DeMint)," Graham said. "Why throw out the conservative that we know to elect a conservative that we don't know?"
The Democrats were unable to field a recognizable name against Graham last year, and they still have no recognizable name, though a state senator is rumored to be a possibility.
"That's kind of the plight of the Democrats, which was the plight of the Republicans 40 years ago: not just having a full slate but having a competitive slate," Graham said.
The Lowcountry could see another heated contest in the 1st Congressional District, a seat that Brown held on to last year against Democratic challenger Linda Ketner by only a 52-48 margin.
Ketner has indicated that she won't run again, but state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, former state Rep. Robert Barber and Iraq war veteran Robert Burton of Mount Pleasant all have signalled an interest in running.
And Brown isn't expected to get a pass in the GOP primary with Carroll Campbell III, whose father was governor from 1986-94, signalling a bid along with Katherine Jenerette, who also challenged Brown last year.
Stavrinakis said he expects to make a decision within a few months. He said a Democrat remains the underdog in the 1st District — which stretches from Myrtle Beach to Charleston — "but I think it's a winnable race."
Burton, a Delta airlines pilot assigned to the Air Force Reserve, said he also won't decide until the fall. "I'm mulling it over really hard," he said.
Brown said last year's race was an anomaly and has the numbers to prove it. Stoked by a historic presidential race and unprecedented get-out-the-vote efforts, 341,879 voted in the 1st Congressional District last year — 76 percent more than cast ballots in Brown's successful 2006 re-election bid.
"I think the Democrats did an absolutely marvelous job getting people to the polls," Brown said. "I don't think they're going to show back up next year."
Graham said Brown's incumbency is a valuable asset.
"An incumbent candidate in South Carolina really almost has to give a challenger — either in the same party or the other party — some issue to 'kick the rascal out,' so to speak," Graham said. "Representative Brown is heavily criticized but he's no rascal. He has a positive reputation for constituent service."
The Lowcountry's other congressman, House Majority Whip James Clyburn, is now the third-ranking leader in Congress and hasn't had a serious challenger in years. Few expect one next year in his 6th Congressional District.
Adding intrigue is the prospect that the state's congressional districts, particularly among the coast, might be dramatically redrawn after the 2010 Census, which could add a seventh district to the state in 2012. "That could create a much more wide-open environment," Graham said.
Schuyler Kropf and Yvonne Wenger contributed to this report. Reach Robert Behre at 937-5771 or at rbehre@postandcourier.com.
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Comments
Charlestongolfer (anonymous) says...
Henry Brown has been extremely active lately in the district, staying in touch with his constituents. He also has been active in promoting the Low Country and Grand Strands interests in DC by fighting tax increases, promoting conservation, and keeping Gitmo terrorists out of the Charleston Naval Brig
Henry is too valuable an asset for Charleston and the rest of the 1st district and we must send him back to Washington once again
June 21, 2009 at 12:49 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
stanish (anonymous) says...
South Carolina once again can redeem itself from being ridicule and as a JOKE by electing leaders from both parties who can deliver and restore RESPECT and dignity back to this state. I would love to be optimistic, but I'm a REALIST also! Mark Sanford(Sanfraud) has truly been an EMBARASSMENT and subjected this state to unwarranted attacks by labeling it's people as backwards, uneducated, and having the IQ of a sixth grade dropout! During his two terms in office, he has done absolutely NOTHING for this state! His only ACCOMPLISHMENTS was keeping the state in the top three nationwide with the HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT, S.C. ranking at the near BOTTOM in EDUCATION, and SUING the state over stimulus money it had allocated to it! The only republican that I see would be favorable without excess and negative baggage would be Rep. Gresham Barrett. I still see either Henry McMaster or Andre Bauer ELECTED because the MAJORITY of the voters in this state is STILL stuck on being STUPID! Henry McMaster has PROVEN that he is a first class idiot by being obsessed with and devoting all his time trying to prosecute Craig's List! He is now associated with an aide who was once a GOP county chairman referring to First Lady Michelle Obama as being a descendant of a Gorilla who escaped and later recaptured at the local zoo! He will be considered a JOKE and a RACIST! Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer has proven time and time again that he has NO regards for the law, and is ABOVE the law! The only reason why he wasn't PROSECUTED because we STLL have the Good Ol Boy network alive and well in S.C.! The voters will respond by electing either of these two. That you can bank on! The democrats as far as I'm concerned hasn't produced a strong competitive candidate thus far. Robert Ford is a complete IDIOT, and that's being said by a Black Man. 2010 is still a ways to go, so let's hope more able and respectable candidates surface.
June 21, 2009 at 1:47 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Tides (anonymous) says...
Henry Brown is totally worthless. You either have to just be plain old dumb or suffering from somekind of mental delusion to vote for him.
June 21, 2009 at 5:46 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
cwmcpa (anonymous) says...
Clyburn has stated on national TV his desire for reparations. The gerrymandered district he is in is why he continues to get re elected. His political cornyism is coming to light withhis unqualified daughter getting a 150k job in DC. All one has to do is listen to this man talk for 10 minutes and anyone can see that SC has an upward moblility candidate. I wonder who read the stimulus bill to him?
June 21, 2009 at 7:22 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Chicago_Thug (anonymous) says...
stanish, once again, you prove to be the only racist here.
June 21, 2009 at 7:39 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
watchdog (anonymous) says...
Chciago Thug, what are you saying? Stanish is making sense.
June 21, 2009 at 7:56 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
guidedbystewart (anonymous) says...
Most of stanish's post was right on!
June 21, 2009 at 9:43 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
realamerican (anonymous) says...
I agree stanish has it right!
We need to clear out not only Brown but all the republicans that have repeatedly failed our state for the last generation.
The republican party is in its death throes from which it will not recover if they continue to play to a racist, ignorant minority they for some reason insist is their "base".
June 21, 2009 at 9:56 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
zoomru (anonymous) says...
Stanish.......We can agree with most of what you point out.
...would you also agree that "Its the ENERGY..STUPID!" would be a great slogan for the upcoming election cycles...!!!
Does BROWN or CLYBURN say anything about the ENERGY Right here in South Carolina..??
How about Harrell and Ford telling or educating the PUBLIC about the ENERGY from OUR Trash that would benefit EVERYONE...!!!! www.startech.net ..??
Stanish....ALL comment posters have more in common than the PARTIES care to tell them all about..!!!
June 21, 2009 at 11:22 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
charlestonnative1963 (anonymous) says...
Charleston Golfer did you mean all the praise for Henry Brown as a JOKE or did you actually expect us to believe you?
June 21, 2009 at 11:46 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
charlestonnative1963 (anonymous) says...
I agree 100% with Stanish. The Republican party (I'm an independent voter) has a lot of explaining to do before I go with them gain. Mark Sanford / GW Bush did me in when it comes to voting Republican...Fool me once shame on ME...Until they can put someone up that can show a little progressive thinking rather than living in the past- I'm not voting with them.
June 21, 2009 at 11:50 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
wjhamilton3 (anonymous) says...
Demint has had declared Democratic Opposition for three months.
I got this by email from the Mike Ruckes for Senate Campaign this morning. I attened a Town Hall meeting with Ruckes last week. It's just not accurate to say there is no Democratic Opposition to DeMint. Ruckes has a website, has issued press releases, attended political events and addressed community groups across the state.
From the Ruckes Campaign Manager
"Dear Post and Courier:
The article in June 21st post and Courier was incorrect. The article states: "No one in either party has surfaced as an opponent so far" in regards to Jim DeMint's seat. This is incorrect. Mike Ruckes, a retired Auto worker from Summerville has declared as a Democratic Candidate. Mike has held meeting around the state for the last several months. These meetings have included two Town Hall meetings: one in North Charleston, extensively covered by local TV and radio, and one in Mount Pleasant just this last week. Mike Ruckes is a very serious candidate and provide a viable alternative to Sen. Jim DeMint. Mike supports healthcare reform, the Employee Free Choice act and other progressive ideals."
Here is his website. He sent out a press release yesterday to the Post and Courier.
http://www.mikeruckes2010.com/
June 21, 2009 at 12:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Liberals_Are_Maroons (anonymous) says...
Yeah, that's just what we need, tax happy Democrats taking what little we have left from us.
Nationalized health care, anyone?
June 21, 2009 at 1:36 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
patlabb (anonymous) says...
Dear Post and Courier:
The article in June 21st post and Courier was incorrect. The article states: "No one in either party has surfaced as an opponent so far" in regards to Jim DeMint's seat. This is incorrect. Mike Ruckes, a retired Auto worker from Summerville has declared as a Democratic Candidate. Mike has held meeting around the state for the last several months. These meetings have included two Town Hall meetings: one in North Charleston, extensively covered by local TV and radio, and one in Mount Pleasant just this last week. Mike Ruckes is a very serious candidate and provide a viable alternative to Sen. Jim DeMint. Mike supports healthcare reform, the Employee Free Choice act and other progressive ideals."
Patrick C. Labbe RN MSN
Communications Director
Mike Ruckes for U.S. Senate 2010
(843)814-0244)
June 21, 2009 at 3:17 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
omarro1974 (anonymous) says...
Yeah, that's just what we need, tax happy Democrats taking what little we have left from us.
Nationalized health care, anyone?
______________________________________________________________
No. What we need is more money hungry republicans making sure big business is taken care of at the expense of every one else.
Why are all of you right-wingers afraid of a public option? Are you afraid a government-backed option will expose private insurance for what it is: A ponzi scheme designed to keep premiums coming in while at the same time denying all but the most inexpensive treatments? I thought you guys were all about competition in the marketplace?
Oh yeah, 75% of the country wants a public option.
June 21, 2009 at 3:31 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
omarro1974 (anonymous) says...
C-thug,
Stanish was right on. Sit your neo-con ass down.
June 21, 2009 at 3:33 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
TheTruthFighter (anonymous) says...
Elect me GOV. and I promised to bring real jobs to this state, correct the sorry education system, and crack down on crime so hard that criminals would have nightmare of my face. This State needs new blood - new IDEAS - Someone with GUTS - Until we get this, it will always be the same and our children will be in this blog talking about the same things 20 years from now.
June 21, 2009 at 4:47 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
hadenuff (anonymous) says...
By the time 2010 and 2012 roll around, hopefully we'll have the emergence of the AMERICA FIRST PARTY. That might be wishful thinking. The economy under Hussein has no where to go besides down with his tax and spend Congress in power.
We are slated to have in the near future double digit inflation, double digit unemployment (probably approaching 25-50%), nationalized low-quality health care which will be mandatory, this cap and trade tax which will absolutely kill ANY commerce or business enterprises (including any new employment), the card check bill being legal, amnesty for all 20 million plus criminal illegal aliens in our midst and the list goes on. This all spells bad news for the fiscal and social worlds of longevity for the USA.
In my 55 years of age I have seen America go from a wonderful place to grow up in to a slippery grease topped sliding board that leads to the depths of despair, depression and a third-world sh*t hole country on a par with Zimbabwe.
There was a lot to not like about Hussein, one of them was not color. He is anti-business, anti-military, anti-American in his views and his actions.
POTUS HUSSEIN ------- THE VERY WORST POTUS THIS NATION HAS EVER SEEN.
June 21, 2009 at 4:51 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
omarro1974 (anonymous) says...
Hadenuff, remind me to get you some tinfoil from Walmart from your hat.
June 21, 2009 at 5:05 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
ForPnC (anonymous) says...
In less than a year, South Carolina voters will forget about all of their complaints and vote all of the same morons into office AGAIN.
Then we get to listen to their complaining AGAIN.
June 21, 2009 at 5:08 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
wjhamilton3 (anonymous) says...
Not very convincing-
"Elect me GOV. and I promised to bring real jobs to this state, correct the sorry education system, and crack down on crime so hard that criminals would have nightmare of my face. This State needs new blood - new IDEAS - Someone with GUT"
Actually, we need someone with brains. We've trusted seat of their pants political operators with control of this state for most of it's history. Everybody promises to crack down on criminals, and they do. We have huge numbers of people locked up in one of the Nation's largest prison systems (on a per capita basis). We've had quite enough government by "gut." South Carolina doesn't need to be governed harder, but smarter.
June 21, 2009 at 6:04 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
myrtlesand (anonymous) says...
Sanford is a complete embarrassment - hopefully he can enjoy a nice retirement running some talk radio show instead of actually being in charge of some unit of government.
The state would be far better off if DeMint and Clyburn had to run against solid opposition. DeMint is just like Sanford - I continually wonder what he has done for us lately. And before you say "he saves us tax dollars," think about that for a moment: has DeMint actually saved us tax money, or has he gone out of his way to make sure that your tax dollars go to other states? Clyburn could care less about the Lowcountry - if you don't live along I-95 you don't even matter to him, and he sure as heck isn't going to use his clout to help you. Both of them need to go in my opinion - get people in there who actually care about the people they represent instead of pushing an agenda that only they care about.
June 21, 2009 at 9:37 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Liberals_Are_Maroons (anonymous) says...
Posted by omarro1974 on June 21, 2009 at 3:31 p.m.
Why are all of you right-wingers afraid of a public option? Are you afraid a government-backed option will expose private insurance for what it is ... ?
*****************
No, we're afraid it will make our taxes skyrocket to a level that would be too much even in the best of times, let alone during a recession.
EVERYONE will pay more taxes in order to fund this debacle. Even those Obama promised wouldn't if they made less than $250K per year. There's no way around it. The cost is going to be so unbelievably high that "sin taxes" won't even be a good down payment on it.
For God's sake, even members of Obama's own party is saying "Uh... excuse me. Do you realize how much this is going to cost?"
Oh, and if your employer pays any portion of your health insurance premiums, guess what? You're going to get to start paying taxes on that too.
June 21, 2009 at 10:46 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Paulie (anonymous) says...
Do you really want Brown back? He was simply a yes man for Bush. And, you see how the Republicans ruined our Country. Why do you think the Democrats demolished them in the election?
June 21, 2009 at 11:14 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
UrGatorbait (anonymous) says...
Fantastic choices...
June 21, 2009 at 11:46 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
redredonthehead (anonymous) says...
Stanish...and others...how about giving Vincent Sheheen a look. He's fair, intelligent, and can get things accomplished by working well with others. Check him out! I promise, you'll like what you see.
Vincent Sheheen for Governor...The positive change we need to restore South Carolina to the great state we know it can be.
He just had a a fundraiser here in Charleston and had a terrific response. People really liked what he had to say. He can do it!
June 22, 2009 at 12:14 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
CompostandWourier (anonymous) says...
LMAO,
Stanish, the racist commenting on racism. Now THAT is FUNNY!
As a reminder, Stanish is a racist. No doubt about it!
June 22, 2009 at 6:57 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
CNSYD (anonymous) says...
The morning that the US wakes up to find that we have national health care is the morning that the physicans, hospitals, drug companies and especially the insurance companies need to look in the mirror to see who is to blame.
June 22, 2009 at 8:09 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
nopartisan_noproblem (anonymous) says...
The morning that the US wakes up to find that we have national health care is the morning that the people who depend on others to support them need to look in the mirror and say what happened to my pride, why must I rely on others to take care of me and family. Should I force them to take care of me due to my lack of initiative and determination for a better and more self-responsible life. The government will look in the mirror that same moring and say "Now we got em!" Our lives will literally depend on them. Ridiculous!
June 22, 2009 at 8:26 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
crankyyankee (anonymous) says...
Myrtlesand is typical of the modern voting masses:
"DeMint is just like Sanford - I continually wonder what he has done for us lately".
Myrtle what have you done for the Country, State or even yourself lately and why do you think we should rely on or expect Governement to solve all of your issues. What ever happened to the self sufficent America I grew up in? You folks are absolutely pathetic and helpless without the Governemnt to answer your questions or tell you what to do. I'm happy to see all of you poor pitifuls getting the "Change" you so dearly wanted now live with it and stop your collective whining! Things will get a lot worse on our present coarse so get used to it and stop blaming past administrations for your shortcomings. Everyone wants but none will give! Such is the life of a modern liberal. Gimme, gimme, gimme. Me, me, me it's all about me! Their not doing anything for me! Absolutely pathetic but typical.
June 22, 2009 at 9:07 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
GermanyXO (anonymous) says...
My fellow South Carolinians: We Need Leadership. How many residents truly know Henry Brown? How many residents truly know his competition? How busy was he in Washington, DC; fighting for our state's needs in comparison w/ his colleagues? How balanced was his dedication to residents across all socio-economic boundaries? What advice did he pass on to his successor & whomever was appointed to lead our state's committees? We need a leader who's committed to a long-term relationship w/ South Carolinians from all walks of life. It's not the person elected to hold the seat, but what's done for us residents by whomever sits in the seat. We need to establish continuity, so who among our laundry list of candidates is going to step up to the plate?
June 22, 2009 at 11:26 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
CNSYD (anonymous) says...
nonpartisan_noproblem, although you will probably reject it as liberal propaganda, I suggest you look at the movie "Sicko". I can speak to its accuracy in regard to the US health insurance industry as some of the same things have happened to me personally or to friends of mine. The insurance industry first tries to find a loophole so they don't have to pay.
June 22, 2009 at 11:35 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Luna (anonymous) says...
1971 the first HMO was formed.....that was under Nixon. How did they sell the concept?For profit industry that uses denial of coverage to make money.
Look at the health care of France or Canada...it is not as they have tried to scare us into believing.
We must get our priorities straight.
June 22, 2009 at 12:27 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
CNSYD (anonymous) says...
Sevral years ago while visiting Scotland my wife came down with a UTI. We went to a National Health Service doctor in the small village we were visiting. He not only treated her but very apologetically told us he would have to charge a fee as we were not citizens and therefore not covered under the NHS. I paid the equivalent of about $10. Next we went to the Chemist and got the recommended medicine which was OTC in the UK but requires a prescription in the US. Again a nominal fee was all it cost.
June 22, 2009 at 7:29 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
hairy1663 (anonymous) says...
Posted by crankyyankee on June 22, 2009 at 9:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"Myrtlesand is typical of the modern voting masses:
"DeMint is just like Sanford - I continually wonder what he has done for us lately".
Myrtle what have you done for the Country, State or even yourself lately and why do you think we should rely on or expect Governement to solve all of your issues. What ever happened to the self sufficent America I grew up in? You folks are absolutely pathetic and helpless without the Governemnt to answer your questions or tell you what to do. I'm happy to see all of you poor pitifuls getting the "Change" you so dearly wanted now live with it and stop your collective whining! Things will get a lot worse on our present coarse so get used to it and stop blaming past administrations for your shortcomings. Everyone wants but none will give! Such is the life of a modern liberal. Gimme, gimme, gimme. Me, me, me it's all about me! Their not doing anything for me! Absolutely pathetic but typical."
You took the words right out of my mouth.
June 22, 2009 at 9 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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