El Nino says we can relax — maybe

2011 Hurricane Guide
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El Nino has stuck its head up, the first real climatic hint of how many hurricanes we might see this year. The Pacific warming trend usually signals a mild season in the Atlantic, but don't relax just yet.

Computer models suggest a strong tropical wave will move off Africa next week, just as the hurricane-shearing winds die down that are formed by weather changes such as El Nino. That could mean the first tropical storm of the season, so it might be time to start pulling out the storm shutters.

But overall, the models predicted El Nino would show up, and strong trade winds this winter kept tropical waters cooler than normal. Those are good signs.

"It's predicted to be a significant El Nino, the kind that tends to deter hurricanes in the Atlantic, all of which is saying it should be a very, very quiet year," said Morris Bender, senior research meteorologist working with the groundbreaking hurricane-tracker Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory computer model.

Relaxed again? Not so fast. Two Georgia Tech researchers just released a study that found that not all El Ninos are created equal.

In the past few years, they've seen a trend of El Nino warming farther out in the Pacific, where it has less impact on Atlantic hurricanes.

"It's an interesting wrinkle," said Frank Marks, hurricane research division director at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "There's a little bit of flavor here. We're getting a little more information."

El Nino is a warming trend in Pacific tropical waters that creates high altitude winds that shear hurricanes in this hemisphere. La Nina is the opposite, a cooling trend that tends to favor hurricane development.

Got all that? Now let's talk cell towers. Researchers at Tel Aviv University, studying cell phone tower signals in the Judean Desert, found that they could use disruptions in the signals to gauge how moist the air is.

They suggest that the same gauge can be used to predict how strong an oncoming hurricane will remain as it moves over land, and how serious flooding might be.

Or not.

"Once the hurricane has hit land, too late, game over. Would the cell phone towers survive the hurricane landfall?" asked Mark Malsick, S.C. climate office severe weather liaison.

Marks reacts with a shake of his head.

"I get a lot of that," he said. "It seems like everybody wants to link what they're doing to hurricanes nowadays."

The technique is one of a number being researched that uses moisture readings, he said, because in the atmosphere, moisture is where the energy is — an important factor in judging storm strength and one that science doesn't have a good handle on yet.

The signals could become a valuable tool for hurricane forecasting, he said, but "it's a stretch."

As for hurricanes this year, Bender has a final caution.

Hurricane Andrew struck Florida and Louisiana in 1992, killed 65 people and left billions of dollars worth of damage behind. "Andrew," he said, "formed in a quiet year."

Reach Bo Petersen at 937-5744 or bpetersen@post andcourier.com.