Obama's solid gains in Russia
President Obama made positive gains and avoided damaging concessions in his two-day visit to Russia. It was, on balance, a successful trip.
The gains were topped by an agreement to keep bilateral strategic arms limits alive past the end of the year and by obtaining Russian permission for U.S. aircraft to cross Russian air space to ferry support to our forces in Afghanistan.
The agreement would reduce strategic warheads from the 2,200 now permitted to between 1,500 and 1,675. Strategic delivery vehicles — missiles and bombers — now capped at 1,600 would be reduced to between 500 and 1,100. The range reflected disagreement. The Russian side wanted the lower number and the American side the higher one. The United States has 1,198 delivery vehicles; the Arms Control Association estimates that Russia has 816. The agreement will allow for further discussion.
Getting an agreement to allow U.S. military supplies to fly through Russian air space is pure gain. It could save over $100 million a year in fuel costs, shorten the time it takes to deliver cargoes, and frustrate Taliban and al-Qaida efforts to interdict supplies coming through Pakistan.
President Obama negotiated with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, but also paid a courtesy call on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who remains the behind-the-throne power in Russia. In their talks, reporters said, Mr. Putin did not back down on Russia's quarrel with Georgia. In a speech delivered shortly before the end of his visit, Mr. Obama did not back down on the right of Georgia and the Ukraine to seek NATO membership.
Russia reportedly has dropped its demand to link the strategic arms issue to the American plan to build missile defenses in Eastern Europe. Mr. Obama, on the other hand, linked ending that plan to the success of international efforts to get Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. In his speech, he said Russia should cooperate with the United States in efforts to stop nuclear proliferation. Unfortunately, Russia's leaders offered scant hope for such cooperation regarding Iran — for now.
But one thing that may improve prospects for closer U.S.-Russian relations is the possibility of greater American private investment in Russia. Russia's leaders undoubtedly recognize that their invasion of Georgia last year caused foreign investors to shy away, exacerbating Russia's pain in the global recession. So they must have been gratified when, during Mr. Obama's visit, companies including PepsiCo, Boeing, Conoco-Phillips and Exxon made pledges of billions of dollars of investments in Russia and purchases from Russian firms.
The deals underlined Mr. Obama's pitch for cooperation and contributed to the generally successful air surrounding his visit to Moscow.
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