Obama likely to triumph

Patrick Caddell, who has worked as a pollster on six presidential campaigns since 1972 and helped get Jimmy Carter elected in 1976, said Democratic contender Barack Obama's victory is looking more and more certain, but with a financial crisis unfolding, the race remains up in the air.

"Barack Obama is the luckiest person I have ever seen in American politics," he told an audience of Citadel cadets Thursday. "You can almost be comedic about it."

He noted how Obama's original U.S. Senate opponents imploded four years ago, how news of Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, broke after Iowa, which likely wouldn't have given Obama a big boost there otherwise, and how President George Bush's recent handling of the economic crisis breathed new life into Obama's campaign.

He said Bush, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for an unprecedented bailout that many Americans didn't believe was necessary. Since the bailout passed, the Dow Jones average has plummeted.

"What they did was put a bomb under the Republican campaign," he said, adding that Sen. John McCain also contributed to his current problems by abandoning his campaign to return to Washington and then to attend the first debate in Mississippi before a deal had been struck, and then by turning in a boring performance in the second debate.

Caddell, who now lives in Hanahan, has worked on six Democratic presidential campaigns, consulted on "The West Wing" TV drama and comments on Fox News. While Caddell's Democratic roots run deep, former Democratic National Committee chairman Don Fowler — who invited Caddell to speak at The Citadel — said Caddell doesn't always follow the party line.

While the conventional wisdom says Obama remains out front, Caddell remains a leading skeptic of conventional wisdom.

"Never believe the conventional wisdom. The greatest defeats are suffered by those who fight the last war," he said. "If you bet against conventional wisdom in American politics, eight times out of 10, you're a winner."

Caddell ticked off a recent list of incidents when conventional wisdom was wrong: That Sen. Hillary Clinton's nomination was inevitable, that McCain's campaign was over, that the federal bailout would stabilize the economy, though stocks have since tanked.

He said the missing debate in this year's election is the corruption in both political parties, and he blamed the mainstream media for taking sides and choosing Obama. "If Barack Obama was given the scrutiny Hillary Clinton was given in this campaign, he would not be the nominee of the Democratic Party," he said. "Hillary Clinton was killed unfairly as a candidate because the press decided they were for him (Obama)."

As for McCain's vice presidential pick, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Caddell called her "the best natural communicator since Ronald Reagan."

While Caddell said he has doubts about Obama's experience and qualifications, he could prove to excel in the office.

Still, he said he couldn't predict where the economy would head from here, and that could dim the victory party for whoever is elected next month.

"I'm not sure I'd want to get elected president this year," he said.

Reach Robert Behre at 937-5771 or at rbehre@postandcourier.com.