The return of nuclear history
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has warned Congress and the next administration that they face a stark choice on the future of the nation's nuclear weapons capabilities. In a recent speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he said that if the nation wants to remain a nuclear power, it must, without delay, either resume nuclear testing or authorize the construction of new, improved nuclear warheads.
Secretary Gates makes a persuasive case that Congress should overcome its ambivalence about new warheads and authorize a program, advocated for the last few years by the Bush administration, for building a "Reliable Replacement Warhead."
According to the defense chief, the nation's existing weapons were not designed for long shelf life or easy modernization. After making the large number of changes required to extend their useful lives, the Defense Department would not be able to certify their reliability without new underground nuclear tests.
Rather than resume underground testing — a measure that would raise international tensions and bring domestic protests — it would be wiser to resume nuclear warhead production with a new, more reliable warhead designed for future modernization. The design, suggested Secretary Gates, would allow the weapons to be tested for reliability by computers, without having to detonate them.
As for why the nation should be concerned about its future nuclear posture, Mr. Gates noted that the end of the Cold War has not meant, as some had hoped, the end of international conflict. As author and defense expert Robert Kagan argues in a new book, "The Return of History and the End of Dreams," the new peaceful international order many hoped for after the fall of the Soviet Union has not arrived.
By deterring aggression, American nuclear weapons helped keep the world from facing a third world war during the second half of the 20th Century. They play a similar role today in deterring the ambitions of rogue nations like North Korea and Iran, and in keeping a balance of forces with Russia and China, both significant nuclear powers. A world in which the United States unilaterally disarmed its nuclear forces would be a far more dangerous place.
Mr. Gates warned that unless action is taken, that could become the case. "Currently the United States is the only declared nuclear power that is neither modernizing its nuclear arsenal nor has the capability to produce a new nuclear warhead," he said.
Congress must correct that deficiency without further delay.
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