Few challenges in S.C.

COLUMBIA — An analysis of Statehouse races shows few seats will change hands on Election Day, despite presidential politics that have electrified a nation.

Blease Graham, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina, found that 11 percent of the 46 races in the state Senate are between a new Democratic and Republican candidate as are 10 percent of the 124 seats in the House.

Furman University political science professor Glen Halva-Neubauer said he is not surprised by Graham's findings.

"I think the fundamental problem in terms of our Statehouse races is that they are just so hard-wired for a particular party that even when you have these changes that occur in voter registration, they have to be more than extraordinary."

The way districts are drawn has the political scientists predicting that even the expected high voter turnout for the presidential race won't change the makeup in the Statehouse, especially taken with the lack of competition.

Incumbents are being challenged by mainstream candidates in 11 Senate districts and 28 House districts, comprising less than a quarter of each chamber. And in many cases there is simply no race at all, with incumbents gliding into another term without any challenger.

The Senate has 14 unchallenged Republican and eight Democratic incumbents, meaning 47 percent of the chamber's makeup will stay the same for another four years. In the House, 36 Republican and 33 Democratic incumbents, or 55 percent of the membership, will return to their seats for another two years.

DuBose Kapeluck, an assistant professor of political science at The Citadel, said incumbents at all levels of government typically find any easy route back to office. At the state level, races involve less money and less information, and in turn, voters are less mobilized or less motivated, Kapeluck.

The situation is unfortunate given the greater impact state government has on the lives of residents, Kapeluck said.

Graham has many theories for why the Statehouse elections are not more competitive, including the hardship of raising campaign money, the blister of public scrutiny and the low pay for legislators. A salary of $10,400 a year for legislators who work in Columbia three days a week for six months a year limits who can afford to serve.

Given the chance for little turnover, Graham said it is unlikely the Republicans will lose majority in either chamber. Currently the House has 51 Democrats and 73 Republicans to the 19 Democrats and 27 Republicans in the Senate, he said.

Murmurs around the Statehouse earlier this year highlighted the possibility of Democrats gaining more traction in the Legislature with excitement at the polls for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama, but that's unlikely, Graham said.

"I am not convinced that there are presidential coattails in South Carolina," he said. "I think a lot of this is much more personal and much more local."

Reach Yvonne Wenger at 803-799-9051 or ywenger@postandcourier.com.