Can you say overrated?

I'm waiting for the e-mail. Get it every year around this time from a buddy of mine who can't, for the life of him, understand my fascination with Florida State.

Every year I jump into the deep end. Every year he laughs at me while I tread water and the Seminoles sink further into the muck of mediocrity.

The most overrated team in the country, he says. You don't know what the hell you're talking about, I say. And now, the painful revelation: He's right.

Five overrated teams — Florida State isn't in anyone's preseason top 25 but makes the list based on reputation — waiting to be exposed this fall:

Florida State

All you need to know about the 'Noles: They lost badly to Wake Forest the past two seasons. Granted, the Deacs are now among the ACC's elite, but these programs don't recruit in the same hemisphere. Yet if you line up the two teams and we choose for a pickup game, I'm taking Wake players at just about every position.

FSU teams of late play with no heart — just bravado that's gone by the second quarter. You can have the high school All-Americans who talk big and play small. I'll take the guys no one wanted who have everything to prove. FSU had one player — one — last season who played hard every down: wideout Preston Parker. And he went and left a loaded gun under the dashboard of his car.

Hello, mediocrity.

Texas

First, a disclaimer: Considering the depleted numbers on defense last fall, Mack Brown did the best coaching job of his career getting 10 wins out of the Longhorns.

A year later, what do we have? Essentially the same defense and an offense that has no legitimate tailback and no deep threat at wide receiver. And you thought quarterback Colt McCoy regressed last season.

It's a testament to Brown and what he has built that Texas is ranked in the top 10 of nearly every preseason poll. But this team isn't close to top 10-caliber; it'll be lucky to stumble into the Cotton Bowl.

The culprits: Recruits who haven't panned out. Players such as all-world linebacker Sergio Kindle and five-star defensive end Eddie Jones.

Arizona State

Here's an interesting factoid: ASU was Pac-10 co-champion last fall — and didn't beat a team with a pulse. I'm all for reclamation stories, but ASU's turnaround under coach Dennis Erickson was nothing more than a team playing in a watered-down league and still losing its three toughest games of the season (Southern Cal, Oregon, Texas).

Now this ASU team must deal with key losses on both sides of the ball. It does have quarterback Rudy Carpenter — but it also has his enigmatic ways. Factor the pluses and minuses and it's not a good combination for a team that is in most everyone's top 15 this spring.

The road map to a meltdown: a little nonconference tilt the third weekend of September against SEC heavyweight Georgia, followed by conference road games against California and Southern Cal. Everyone on the train to 6-6ville.

Clemson

The Tigers a top 10 team? I've seen this before. Plug and play, everyone: Woody Dantzler, Charlie Whitehurst, Cullen Harper. Start fast, finish slow; stumble at the start, sprint to the finish. What's the difference? It washes out to seven or so wins and coach Tommy Bowden feeling heat.

The only change this time: Bowden's recent contract extension all but guarantees his safety. I'm not buying Clemson until someone on that staff realizes C.J. Spiller actually plays for the Tigers. One of the game's most dynamic running backs somehow touched the ball just 16 1/2 times a game (that includes punt and kickoff returns) last season — a monumental increase from the 13.2 times in 2006.

Absolutely dumbfounding.

Texas Tech

Kid you not: Heard a television bobblehead the other day say the Red Raiders are his sleeper pick to make it to a BCS game — and maybe even more.

Tech will score on everyone this fall. There's quarterback Graham Harrell and wideout Michael Crabtree, plus a few other guys who will get 60-70 catches, too.

To this, I say: So?

It's the other side of the ball that has kept Tech from resembling anything close to a Big 12 contender. The defense played well the second half of last season after Ruffin McNeill took over as coordinator but still gave up 127 points to Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma. Those aren't BCS numbers. Those are the numbers of a team waiting to be exposed.