Weird year may leave door open for ACC bubble teams

ACC Notes

CLEMSON — Lots of numbers, statistics and trends get thrown around this time of year as pundits speculate about at-large selections to the NCAA Tournament.

But this year more than ever, historical precedent should not take precedence. Everything is relative, mainly because everything is watered down in college basketball.

It's widely assumed that Maryland, at 18-12 and 8-7 in the Atlantic Coast Conference, must win at Virginia on Sunday and bag another victory in the conference tournament to avoid landing in the NIT for the third time in four years.

It's also assumed Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-6) still has some work to do to reach the NCAAs for the second consecutive season, and maybe Miami (20-8, 7-7) as well.

The first two assumptions are based on the Terrapins' and Hokies' low standing in the Ratings Percentage Index, a gauge of strength used by the NCAA selection committee. Maryland is 64th in the RPI, according to collegerpi.com, and Virginia Tech is 57th.

Over the past three seasons, no team rated worse than 63rd in the RPI has received an at-large bid. So if history is any indication, both teams are flirting seriously with being left out of the NCAA mix.

But history might not be much of an indication this year. Maryland and Virginia Tech aren't exactly locks to reach the tournament, yet a look across the country suggests they might not have as much work to do as some people are anticipating.

Jerry Palm, who runs collegerpi.com, sees a lot of teams getting in this year that would not ordinarily make the cut.

"I've got a dozen teams in my (mock) bracket with just gaping holes in their profiles," he said. "Last year we left out about a dozen teams that are in this bracket."

A few examples: West Virginia (No. 41 RPI), a team that has compiled a 1-7 record against teams ranked in the Top 50 of the RPI, is a No. 9 seed in Palm's bracket. Davidson (44), which doesn't have a victory over a Top 100 team, will nonetheless get serious at-large consideration if it doesn't snare the Southern Conference's automatic bid.

Villanova (61), which has ugly losses to DePaul (163) and Rutgers (220), is a 12 seed. Kentucky (52) is also a 12 seed despite losses to Gardner-Webb (206) and San Diego (107). Southern Illinois (47), with a whopping five losses to teams ranked 101-200, is a 12 seed. Florida (62), which has just one Top 50 victory, is an 11 seed.

"You don't see a lot of teams that have done much," Palm said.

Outside of North Carolina, Duke and Clemson, the NCAA picture is dicey for the ACC — but maybe not as dicey as some are painting it. Don't be surprised if the ACC, the top conference according to the RPI, gets the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Coming from ahead

It's always been assumed that teams expend a monstrous amount of energy coming back from large deficits, making execution difficult in late-game situations.

But three games over the weekend suggested that building — and protecting — a huge lead could be just as draining. Duke came from 13 down late at North Carolina State and won 87-86; North Carolina overcame an 18-point deficit at Boston College and won by 10; and Sunday night, Clemson pulled off a dramatic comeback at Maryland, winning 73-70 after facing a 20-point deficit with 11 minutes remaining, and a 13-point margin with less than five minutes left.

As their leads evaporated, the Wolfpack, Eagles and Terrapins looked dead and scared on both ends of the floor.

"Once a team gets momentum, it's hard to get it going back in your direction if you've given it up," said Tar Heels coach Roy Williams.

Said Boston College coach Al Skinner: "Instead of continuing to remain aggressive, you have a tendency to relax and the other team becomes more aggressive, and I think that makes a difference in a game."

After the fall

A day after his team's epic collapse, Maryland coach Gary Williams didn't try to understate the shattering nature of the defeat.

The Terps have dealt with jolting setbacks already this season. They suffered non-conference losses to Virginia Commonwealth, American and Ohio but recovered and eventually won at No. 1 North Carolina. After back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Miami, they responded with a big victory at Wake Forest last week.

"It's draining, there's no doubt about it," Gary Williams said. "It's just like a boxer: How many times does he get up after he's been knocked down? We've been knocked down a few times this year. (Sunday) night was a pretty good example. But we've come back."

Oglesby nets honor

Clemson guard Terrence Oglesby was named ACC rookie of the week after burying the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.3 seconds left at Maryland.

All four of Oglesby's 3-pointers came in the second half. His 70 treys are five short of the school record by a freshman, set by Tony Stockman in 2000-01.

High Five

Ranking the ACC's best pure shooters:

1. Wayne Ellington, UNC … Can be streaky, but his form is absolutely flawless.

2. Anthony Morrow, Georgia Tech … All he needs is a great point guard.

3. Jack McClinton, Miami … Can get hot in a hurry.

4. Terrence Oglesby, Clemson … He's fearless — almost too fearless.

5. Sean Singletary, Virginia … Good numbers would be great if he had any help.

Reach Larry Williams at lwilliams@postandcourier.com.