Inaccurate predictions might be raising doubts, insurance costs
The Post and Courier
Carl Kelly tears out flooring in his St. Stephen home ruined by floodwaters from Tropical Storm Gaston in August of 2004.
S.C. landfalls
South Carolina tropical cyclone landfalls in recent history
1954, Oct. 15: Hurricane Hazel
1959, July 11: Tropical Storm Cindy;
Sept. 29: Hurricane Gracie
1976, Aug. 21: Tropical Depression Dottie
1989, Sept. 21: Hurricane Hugo
2002, Oct. 11: Tropical Storm Kyle
2004, Aug. 14: Hurricane Charley;
Aug. 29: Tropical Storm Gaston
- S.C. Climate Office
Storm names
Atlantic tropical cyclone names for 2008:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
- National Hurricane Center
An emergency manager's offhand remark doubting hurricane evacuation warnings drove home the point to coastal scientist Rob Young: Why should we believe storm track predictions when these guys can't even get the season forecasts right?
People's trust in the science of tracking hurricanes has been marred by inaccurate hurricane season predictions that are released before the season begins. Coastal managers worry about how readily people will respond to warnings to evacuate once a storm is actually on its way.
Along the South Carolina coast, a reluctance to evacuate could mean a disaster. During the height of vacation— and hurricane — season an evacuation might put 2 million people on the road. If too many wait to the last minute, traffic will gridlock. If they don't go, storm surge becomes deadly.
Today is the opening of the 2008 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, the time of year when conditions are ripe for tropical storms to form. In fact, Tropical Storm Arthur, the first storm of the season, made landfall at the Belize-Mexico border on Saturday.
The season runs through October. In Charleston, the most worrisome days tend to run from August through September, when storms off West Africa strengthen as they cross the Atlantic and curl toward the Southeastern coast.
Inside today's Post and Courier is a guide on preparing for the threat of the storms. Brush off the "experts" if you want. But make plans.
What's at stake for South Carolina? $150 billion. And for you? Potentially your life.
Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, the agency that tracks individual storms and issues warnings, said the surge in development up and down the coast means people will have less time to decide whether to evacuate as a storm approaches.
The concern partly spurred the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate office this year to revamp how it makes its seasonal predictions; the outlook now includes the odds that its predictions will be accurate, based on the researchers' confidence in how they're reading climate conditions. This year's odds are only 60 percent to 70 percent.
Young, a Western Carolina University coastal geology professor, hears people's lack of confidence over and over again in his work along the Lowcountry coast.
"The fact that the (season) forecasts have been so far off, and they keep issuing them, I think folks lose faith in scientists in general who are working in the coastal area, in storm track forecasting, beach erosion and other fields," Young said.
"There's general agreement in the scientific community that the season predictions aren't working. They're sending the wrong message. No matter what the forecast is in any given year, you really shouldn't do anything differently. People who live in risky areas should prepare the same way every single year."
In 1989, Hurricane Hugo slammed ashore just north of Charleston and caused catastrophic damage. Since Hugo, 38 tropical storms or hurricanes coming off the Atlantic alone have had some impact in South Carolina. In the past six years, two hurricanes and a tropical storm have come ashore, according the S.C. Climate Office.
"For any one point along the coastline, it doesn't matter what the seasonal outlook is," said Dennis Feltgen, National Hurricane Center public affairs officer. "As the season starts out, you have a 50-50 chance of a hurricane — either you get one or you don't. The only number that matters is 1. That's the one storm you should prepare for."
South Carolina has more than $150 billion in insured property in coastal areas, said the S.C. Insurance News Service. That's the eighth largest total in the country; it counts for about one-fourth of the insured property value in the entire state.
Coastal property owners grouse that the season forecasts don't do anything but make insurance policies impossible to find or pay. There's a germ of truth in that.
Research companies who put together risk assessments for insurance companies use seasonal numbers and long-term trend forecasts to set those risks. Better technology has led to more borderline storms being named tropical cyclones, and that has put a slight tilt into the numbers used by the risk researchers. But the assessments put more focus on historical damage from storms and the potential for damage.
"Insurance companies file rates once a year. They're not going to take information from (season forecasts on) June 3rd and put new rates into place June 4th," said Allison Dean Love, the insurance news service's executive director.
"Typically, I tell people if you live in a higher risk area you pay a higher rate. They question the risk and they question the rate. (But) it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when' South Carolina will have another Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane. Every year we try to make sure we have enough money to pay those potential losses."
Coastal scientist Young said season predictions are bad science, releasing data from studies that are under way and not concluded. He wishes researchers would keep the data in house until they get it right. Geoff Dulaney, a Charleston waterfront homeowner and a real estate agent, agrees.
"With the advancement in radar and other technology they can spot these things now in the far Atlantic, you can see them coming for weeks," he said. "What's the point of predictions?"
Reach Bo Petersen at 745-5852 or bpetersen@postandcourier.com.
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Comments
squirt16oz (anonymous) says...
Very interesting..... "...(But) it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when' South Carolina will have another Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane. Every year we try to make sure we have enough money to pay those potential losses." What happens to that money they didn't spend the year before on claims???? It's stuck in a bank somewhere getting interest paid in dividends for the insurance companies stockholders, but since it is unspent for its advertised purpose, why is the money in that pool not used to offset the current costs? What a sham....what a racket!!! It's legalized robbery by a den of thieves, and nothing else!
June 1, 2008 at 6:11 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
BLUEEYEDMUTANT (anonymous) says...
Yes with all the quibbling over Katrina pay outs, I read somewhere that at least one insurance company (State Farm), has a 47 Billion Dollar cash reserve. And they can thank all the hurrihype and weathernoia for much of that.
Thing is the insurance companies have turned bad weather forecast into a commodity. Isn't it strange that one of the main hurricane prediction centers is in Colorado? They hardly ever have a hurricane out there? Dust devils and tornados, yes, but what in the world can they know about hurricanes?
And it affects oil prices as well. One of the big reasons behind higher oil prices is that it is a commodity. Speculators are driving the price up and all the bad news about potential decrease in supply in the face of demand is putting our money in their pockets.
Take oil off the commodities market and gasoline will drop to 50 cent a gallon within 5 months.
June 1, 2008 at 10:03 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
JC (anonymous) says...
I don't see the see the point in trying to predict how many storms there are going to be. What does it matter. It only matters when they are upon you. Predict where its going when it gets to where it is :) I'm sure these high predictions (as they always are and rarely happen) influence insurance companies whether they want to take on any more customers when the hurricane season is here.
June 1, 2008 at 10:20 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
newbattleaxe (anonymous) says...
Squirt,
You are SO right! So are you, Blue, JC, and Rare!
I live on a quiet little creek, miles from the ocean, but too close for most of the fat-cat insurers to take the risk. We survived Gracie and Hugo in fine style, but they don't care about that!
So, I just crank my generator, check my batteries, & restock my freezer and pantry every 1 June. Then, every 30 Nov., I have a party. If I feel the need to evacuate, I just go as far as Summerville. I have friends there who will put up with my dogs and cats.
June 1, 2008 at 10:52 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Reader (anonymous) says...
The local weather forecasters are largely to blame for the attitudes in the area. Why is an annual forecast even relevant? What action is a person supposed to do with that information?
If the local TV stations insist on reporting about these predictions, they should also report how far off the "expert's" prediction was at the same time the previous year. For example, Bill Sharpe might report, "Dr. Smith has revised his prediction to 11 named storms this year. Last year, his prediction as of this same date ended up overstating the actual number by 8 storms."
June 1, 2008 at 11:52 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
BillMan (anonymous) says...
Every time one of these big storms haeds this way everyone goes into a frenzy and nothing happens so the next time people are a little less concerned, but just remember New Orleans and Hugo for that matter to see what can happen! These high premiums are paying for damage in rest of the country in any given year!
June 1, 2008 at 11:53 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
icbmman (anonymous) says...
It is surprising that nobody has mentioned a possible motive for making hurricane storm predictions: fueling the mass hysteria for man-made global climate change. Many people in the public have been hoaxed into believing that global warming/climate change causes hurricanes like Katrina, and when more hurricanes are spawned, it is because of this phenomenon as well.
Since it is summer (warmer weather), I "forecast" that the hysteria of the climate changers will increase in intensity. They will also be at the forefront anytime a number of hurricanes form and make landfall.
June 2, 2008 at 8:57 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Tammie (anonymous) says...
No one has predicted the weather correctly since Charlie Hall died. JMO
June 2, 2008 at 10 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
5thGenerationLocal (anonymous) says...
I wish I had known that I could get a job that pays to lie everyday and look stupid on TV. I certainly would not have chosen the military path and gotten shot at!!!
June 2, 2008 at 1:28 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
iceman1978 (anonymous) says...
Other than when I lived overseas, I've always lived in the southeast, and within twenty miles of a coastline. Before Charleston I lived in the Tampa Bay area and we always knew that hurricanes were a factor in life. It's just like when you live in California you have earthquakes, you have blizzards in the north and floods/tornados in the midwest. Nowhere in this country is immune from natural disasters. I would rather deal with hurricanes because unlike an earthquake, you have time to prepare. From my experiences I would offer the following advise:
1) Evacuate only if you are either forced to, or you feel that your home would be unsafe. If you live in a higher ground area like Summerville or Goose Creek then there's no need to evacuate. Even most parts of North Charleston would be ok. You're better off to make your home as safe as possible than to risk being stranded somewhere on the highway. Remember how well the Hurricane Floyd evacuation went?
2) Stock up on supplies early. Take a little trip to someplace where you can buy in bulk, maybe Costco, and get the items you will need in the event of a hurricane. To be safe, prepare to be on your own for one week. Food, water, candles, batteries, a radio, pet food (if necessary), a few books to stay occupied, and other items. Keep these items in a storage area of your home. If you wait till the last minute, as so many do, you'll only panic and waste valueable time.
3) If you plan on boarding your windows, have the plywood measured and ready to go.
4) During hurricane season always keep at least 1/2 a tank of gas in your car. If a storm gets within 1,000 miles, keep 3/4. I top off as often as I have to during hurricane season so that at any given time I have enough fuel to get to Columbia.
June 2, 2008 at 4:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Chilldiesel83 (anonymous) says...
People lash out at insurance companies only when it is convienent for them. And the 47 million that State Farm has in cash reserves is not from charging excess premium on homeowner's insurance, it is the reserves that the State Farm Mutual Automobile Company has, which is in fact a seperate company from State Farm Fire and Casualty, and acts as that companies reinsurer. Also, many times, those that are affected by the SC Wind Pool Association pay a higher premium for just the wind/hail coverage than they would pay to have all coverages under one policy. Everyone bashes insurance until they need it. Do this, dont buy any insurance and try to weather the storm. When your 500,000 dollar house on IOP blows away, and you have to pay off that mortgage and build a brand new house entirely on your own, you might take a different stand. While hurricane and windstorm damage are the biggest exposure in the coastal area, these policies also protect you from a number of other exposures, just not flood. I see no problem at all paying an insurance company 2000 a year if they give me 300,000 when my house burns down or blows away. Also, some companies (State Farm) is a mutual company, meaning there are no stockholders receiving dividends, the insureds(the owners of the company) recieve those in the form of lower premiums, mainly auto premiums. Remember the cheapest is not always the best. Small companies that charge small premiums might be able to handle day to day claims, but in the event of a disaster, they will surely become insolvent, meaning bankrupt. Just ask the people of Florida when Hurricane Andrew came roaring through. Only a handful of insurance companies survived.
June 3, 2008 at 9:05 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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