Residents try to decipher growth study

SUMMERVILLE — Dorchester County residents facing congested roads and overcrowded schools have been hearing for a year that a $42,000 growth study would shed some light on the problems.

The study was unveiled Friday. Now residents are wondering what it means. It seems to be saying that residents will pay for growth whether the county grows or not.

"Bottom line, where are we?" resident Carl Dinge asked during the time for comments. "Is this going to mean a tax increase or not?"

Charles Taylor of the Strom Thurmond Institute of Government and Public Affairs at Clemson University and William Molnar of the Clemson Institute for Economic and Community Development conducted the study and presented the results. Officials will use it as they update their growth plans.

The study assumes growth around Summerville is going to slow down over the next 20 years, even if the housing market picks up again. But under all growth scenarios, income from new houses would pay for more government services but not for new roads and schools.

"(T)he cost of serving the average new household over the next twenty years far exceeds the revenue generated," the report notes.

On the other hand, both the county and the town of Summerville are counting on some growth to pay off debts and prevent tax and fee increases. The county needs to keep building new houses to pay the debt for expanding its water and sewer system, and the town needs more houses to pay for new fire stations, according to the study.

"Although limiting growth might be a potentially viable alternative for some local governments, it will actually worsen the fiscal outcome for others," the report said.

Some residents questioned the logic of building new houses to pay off debts, since the new houses will require more debts for further expansions of service.

"That's a never-ending, vicious cycle," resident Harshad Vyas said.

County Councilman Jamie Feltner also faulted the report's implication that the best way to pay off debts is to build more houses. The county should study how to pay off its debts through new industries instead, he said.

Others noted that the study gives little clue how to pay for needed roads and schools.

"You've done a good job of telling us where we are," resident Fred Luxmore said. "Now how do we get out of this mess?"

Republican state Sen. Heyward Hutson of Summerville said the study shows the need for a bill he introduced to allow municipalities to charge impact fees to build schools. State law forbids using impact fees for schools.

Town Councilman Bob Jackson observed that the study projects the cost of growth but does not include the cost of improving roads and schools that are already inadequate. He's been pushing for an ordinance not to allow development that roads and schools can't handle.

Looking ahead

HOW MUCH GROWTH?

The study notes that Dorchester County grew about 3.5 percent a year between 2000 and 2006, adding as many as 6,000 new people a year. The study notes a recent slowdown in development and assumes growth won't resume to previous levels.

The study projected several growth scenarios, depending on the housing market.

-- Scenario One, considered the most likely projection, assumes 815 new households a year. The county would gain about 2,000 new people a year, or 37,480 new residents by 2030.

-- Scenario Two projects 408 new houses a year. The county would gain 18,787 new residents by 2030.

COST OF GROWTH

Under all growth scenarios, income from new houses would pay for more government services but not for new roads and schools.

-- Roads — The county can pay for planned road expansions with money from its sales tax, the Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Council of Governments and the state Infrastructure Bank, if the Legislature approves $218 million to replenish the bank. But those road expansions probably won't solve traffic congestion, requiring further expenses, the study notes.

-- Schools — Unless the county comes up with another way to pay for new schools, Dorchester District 2 residents will have to cough up some money. The bill would be $90 million if the district adds 300 new students a year. The estimate does not include the cost of new schools needed to relieve present overcrowding. The district has been adding 900 students a year for the last several years, including 900 so far this year.

COST OF NO GROWTH

Residents also could have to pay higher fees and taxes if the town and county don't grow, the study notes. The county is counting on new houses to pay off sewer debts, and the town needs growth to pay for new fire stations.