Jobless rate worst in quarter-century
Unemployment figures
Previous Stories
Jobless rate hits 8%, highest in nearly 25 years, published 11/22/08
Jobless rate could skyrocket; State Board of Economic Advisors cuts revenue estimate another $220M, published 12/11/08
The number of people out of work in South Carolina soared in November to its highest rate in 25 years, and to make matters worse, the state Employment Security Commission says it will run out of money for jobless claims in two weeks unless the state asks for $146 million in federal aid.
The jobless level soared to 8.4 percent, half a percent higher than the revised 7.9 percent of people claiming jobless benefits in October.
"It's a further worsening of conditions," said Sam McClary, a labor analyst with the Employment Security Commission. "It was almost across the board. There was a small increase in retail trade (employment), but it was far below what we normally see this time of year."
Merchants added a paltry 1,300 workers in November to prepare for the holiday season. That number usually is 7,000 to 8,000, McClary said.
The state lost 11,900 jobs in November, bringing the number of unemployed to 182,900.
The state reported 42,900 fewer jobs in November than a year ago.
The jobless rate increase was no surprise as layoffs and business closures continue to mount in the wake of the national economic crisis, said Ted Halley, executive director of the Employment Security Commission.
The nation's unemployment rate rose from 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent.
Chad Birnbaum, 25, a computer network engineer, said he had been on four interviews since recently being laid off from his $60,000 job at a Berkeley County firm. He is a month behind on his $1,400-a-month mortgage. Unemployment benefits are $270 per week.
"Being so close to the holidays I think is a big part of the problem. I just don't see anything getting better over Christmas and New Year's," Birnbaum said Friday.
He hopes an interview he had Friday for a full-time job will work out.
He has been able to find job prospects that would pay a comparable amount to what he was making. "I'm going to give it my best. I'm a survivor. I've been down this road before," he said.
South Carolina has tapped a $15 million line of credit from the federal government to get it through the end of year with jobless benefit payments, but once that's gone the state has no more money set aside to help out-of-work people.
"I don't have the money in the bank, and I can't write the checks," said Halley, of the Employment Security Commission.
Currently, South Carolina is paying out more than $14 million a week in benefits.
The governor's office has not asked the U.S. Labor Department for federal aid to take it through March, saying it first wants the Employment Security Commission to agree to an independent audit that would determine a better way to let the Commerce Department know where and why people are out of work.
"We know how many unemployed people there are, but we don't know why they're unemployed," Sanford press secretary Joel Sawyer said. "Asking for these changes before asking for the loan is putting the best interest of the unemployed and the taxpayers first."
Sawyer said the governor's office is cautiously optimistic that it can work something out with the Employment Security Commission before Dec. 31.
Loan or not, the state's jobless rate is expected to worsen in 2009.
"Right now, I don't see any end in sight," McClary said. "It's still early in the month, but with the preliminary stuff we are seeing in December with very high claims and extremely high layoff events, I don't see any letup right now."
All but five of the state's 46 counties saw their jobless numbers climb, and 21 counties reported double-digit unemployment rates. All the counties in the Charleston metro area recorded rate increases.
"We are not at the bottom," College of Charleston economist Frank Hefner said. What started as a burst of the housing bubble and then a finance problem has degenerated into a worldwide recession. "It's going to be a pretty bad one," he added.
The only good news is that there is no inflation, Hefner said, although he sees nothing on the horizon indicating when the recession will bottom out.
"This is the most atypical recession in our lifetime," he said. "We have never seen anything like this."
Even the governor's office concedes unemployment could deepen. "There's a real possibility that we haven't seen the worst of things," Sawyer said.
Earlier this month, the state's Board of Economic Advisors, which sets revenue estimates for the state, projected unemployment could reach 14 percent by July, adding 150,000 people to jobless lines on top of those currently out of work.
Since the state started keeping records in 1976, unemployment has never been higher than 11.4 percent in January 1983. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics started keeping records in 1948 and could find no national rate as high as 14 percent, although the number was estimated to be between 25 and 30 percent during the Great Depression.
Don Herriott, BEA member and president and general manager of Roche Carolina Inc., said he calculated the 14 percent estimate based partly on the premise that companies delay layoffs for the longest possible time because of the costs involved in reducing and building back up a work force.
So, layoffs always are a delayed indicator that the economy has gone south, and many economists are projecting the situation will continue to worsen before it gets better, perhaps peaking this spring.
"How severe it is going to get is anybody's guess," Herriott said.
If jobless claims continue to increase by 5,000 applications a week for the next seven months, that would translate to 150,000 people without work, Herriott said.
He also tied unemployment in his formula to state revenue collections. For every 25,000 people out of work, state revenues fall 1.5 percent, he said.
"I think we are in uncharted waters," Herriott said. "All our other recessions didn't have these characteristics."
The Great Depression was generated by a collapse of financial institutions, similar to what's happening now, he said, adding, "It happened once, and it lasted for 10 years."
Yvonne Wenger contributed to this report. Reach Warren Wise at 937-5524 or wwise@postandcourier.com.
E-mail this story
Printer-friendly version
Comments
Tides (anonymous) says...
Unemployment will be worst right after Christmas - a period of slow sales even in good times.
Our Federal Government is broke. But hey? They can just print more money!
All of this is not Bush's fault. It's people like Lindsey Graham and Henry Brown's. But you like voting them right back because they are like that guy with the "Ponzi" scheme. They are Charismatic Psychopaths!
December 20, 2008 at 2:35 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
NativeSon (anonymous) says...
Voters just this November gave 'carte blanche' to the democrap party without giving any real thought to the fact that democraps have been pretty much in control of the government for the last three years.
THIS IS WHY WE ARE IN THE MESS WE NOW HAVE!
December 20, 2008 at 7:22 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
moonpie (anonymous) says...
Hey but congress got a raise! I guess all this bailing out their doing just called for giving them a pay raise! Check this out, this is YOUR government out of control...
________________________________________
With economy in shambles, Congress gets a raise? A crumbling economy, more than 2 million constituents who have lost their jobs this year, and congressional demands of CEOs to work for free did not convince lawmakers to freeze their own pay.
Instead, they will get a $4,700 pay increase, amounting to an additional $2.5 million that taxpayers will spend on congressional salaries, and watchdog groups are not happy about it.
"As lawmakers make a big show of forcing auto executives to accept just $1 a year in salary, they are quietly raiding the vault for their own personal gain," said Daniel O'Connell, chairman of The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a non-partisan group. "This money would be much better spent helping the millions of seniors who are living below the poverty line and struggling to keep their heat on this winter."
However, at 2.8 percent, the automatic raise that lawmakers receive is only half as large as the 2009 cost of living adjustment of Social Security recipients.
Member raises are often characterized as examples of wasteful spending, especially when many constituents and businesses in members' districts are in financial despair.
Rep. Harry Mitchell, a first-term Democrat from Arizona, sponsored legislation earlier this year that would have prevented the automatic pay adjustments from kicking in for members next year. But the bill, which attracted 34 cosponsors, failed to make it out of committee.
"They don't even go through the front door. They have it set up so that it's wired so that you actually have to undo the pay raise rather than vote for a pay raise," Ellis said.
Freezing congressional salaries is hardly a new idea on Capitol Hill.
In 2006, after the Republican-led Senate rejected an increase to the minimum wage, Democrats, who had just come to power in the House with a slew of freshmen, vowed to block their own pay raise until the wage increase was passed. The minimum wage was eventually increased and lawmakers received their automatic pay hike.
Currently the average lawmaker makes $169,300 a year, with leadership making slightly more. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) makes $217,400, while the minority and majority leaders in the House and Senate make $188,100.
________________________________________
hey $160K plus per year, plus the benefits, insurance(unlike yours and mine),vacation days, and lets not get the retirement fund(again unlike mine and yours)
December 20, 2008 at 7:30 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
sixcar (anonymous) says...
Let's see...democrats have controlled congress for the last two years. Prior to the election, congress had a 14% approval rating. On election day, voters go to the polls and send the same democrats right back to congress for another round, and add a few more for good measure. hmm
I guess you get what you pay for.
December 20, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
yird (anonymous) says...
When now governor Mark Sanford was a congressman he never kept the $3,400 monthly dislocation allowance all members of congress got at that time.
I don't know what the amount is now but I'm sure it's more, and not highly publicized.
December 20, 2008 at 11:10 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
chucktonian (anonymous) says...
Eh...still a mental recession. Things aren't that bad. It's just too many people aren't old enough to remember the last REAL recession...the Carter recession 30 years ago.
This isn't bad. And nice going by the liberal Charleston Post and Democrat Water Courier...using the phrase "quarter century" instead of 25 years because it sounds worse.
We still live in the most prosperous nation on Earth....and all these bailouts and hyperventilation is Pollyanna.
December 20, 2008 at 11:46 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
EqualityB4theLawThinkAgain (anonymous) says...
I agree with Jim Islander that the right to work laws suck. Most of these laws were put in place as a means of keeping the avg citizen down and to make sure South Carolina's aristocracy had a source of cheap labor. Institutions like the Charleston Archetectual Review serve a similar purpose on the penisula to limit progress unless it benefits a select few. The storage of nuclear waste in Barnwell and the pollution of our rivers and lakes are but a few examples of how South Carolina's politicians have sold out her people. Some measures to fix South Carolina's economy should include a moritorium upon new building permits for 3 years. This would give the real estate market a chance to absorb the foreclosures on the market and construction workers would find plentiful work doing renavations. Next, quit transfering insurance liablities for people living on the coast to SC's taxpayers. Increase the # of days in the year where there is a sales tax holiday. Likewise, if you want to make sure SC residents have jobs, require companies building state and local govt roads, buildings, etc. hire at least 80% of their workforce from SC's residential population. Stop bringing in out-of-state workers who take our jobs. Increase the fines for hiring undocumented workers. Why not bring back video poker that provided state govt with $100 million in tax revenues? Mark Sanford allowing unemployment benefits to run out for SC's rank and file is unforgivable. I remember what it was like when Carter was president, we are still in for a bumpy ride folks. Hang on!
December 20, 2008 at 1:46 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
ProudtobeanAmerican (anonymous) says...
jimislander - what planet do you actually live on? Have you seen the number of jobs being outsourced to other countries?? So - your answer is to prevent American businesses from terminating employees who sit around all day with their thumbs up their ..?? Every comment you post on every article written is anti-American, anti-South Carolina, anti pretty much anyone who has an opinion that differs from you. It seems to me that either 1 - you need to get a full time job or 2 - you need to quit reading the paper all together.
December 20, 2008 at 5:59 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
ProudtobeanAmerican (anonymous) says...
And futhermore Jimmy boy - it appears you are in favor of and voted for the "big change" that was promised. I CANNOT WAIT to see what your comments start saying about 3-6 months from now.
December 20, 2008 at 6:13 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
carolinadude (anonymous) says...
Our Dorchester County Council just gave themselves a 25% pay raise. The economy must be great in Dorchester!! LOL
December 20, 2008 at 11:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
carolinadude (anonymous) says...
"To advocate an efficient, sound, honest
government is neither left-wing nor right-wing,
it is just plain right."
-- J. Peter Grace
December 21, 2008 at 12:01 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
watchdog (anonymous) says...
Hey ProudtobeanAmerican, leave Jimmy Island alone, he is right on this issue. You are a naive citizen, that does not know how the real world works.
December 21, 2008 at 7:17 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
moonpie (anonymous) says...
PTBA, JI would like the pee off Obamas snake skin shoes in 3 to 6 months no matter what. He will still be blaming the republicans even though his beloved liberals have been in control of congress. Well in two years the people will change that...
December 21, 2008 at 8:38 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
counterpoint (anonymous) says...
I recall a small majority lead in Congress and a veto-happy president for the past few years, though I have been largely disappointed with Congress as we all should be.
Why don't we all STFU for now rather than argue conjecture? The problems of today started with Regan and were exacerbated by Clinton.
December 21, 2008 at 9:54 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
majorjohnson (anonymous) says...
Both parties suck crap. We have the secular socialists and the religious socialists now. Neither party is about fiscal responsibility and both consider the constitution an impediment. A pox on both their houses. The only reason we had a "surplus", which was more smoke and mirrors than an actual surplus, when President Clinton was in office was because the republicans shut down the government every year so no budgets were advanced.
The best we can hope for is that government becomes so disfunctional that it quits passing budgets or bills, and withdemocrats in control of every branch it's going to be even worse than when repubicans were in control, and that was a disaster.
December 21, 2008 at 10:06 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Tides (anonymous) says...
Remember .... Sanford warned that the General Assembly was running wild with "OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING"! Remember how many times the General Assembly VETOED his cuts.
Thank you Senator Glenn McConnell and Bobby Harrell for SCREWING SC ALL UP!
December 21, 2008 at 2:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
mkris (anonymous) says...
Are you out of your mind, Tides?
Sanford is a pox on this state. His fiscal policy goes one way - to the rich FROM the poor and middleclass. He works for the rich only, not you or me.
Now is the time that deficit spending is needed to create jobs by completing needed infrastructure. HOOVER followed the same policies and proved that cutting taxes in a recession, excelerates a declining market thereby creating a depression!
December 21, 2008 at 4:19 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
nappyd (anonymous) says...
Bad economy and all (not as bad as people are trying to make it sound at times, but still...it's bad.), I don't feel bad for that guy to be losing his house with a $1,400 mortgage. At age 25. Think carefully about his "work situation" and the size of that mortgage payment.
That's not the traditional starter home. Give or take down payment, insurance/escrow, points, etc. that's somewhere around $200,000-220,000+. That's a lot of house to have just out of college living by yourself.
What happened to being responsible and living within one's means, saving up for a down payment, etc.?
This kid's screwed. Even if he finds a job monday, starts next week, works two weeks, gets first paycheck held...looking at a month till his first paycheck.
December 21, 2008 at 11:18 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Postandcourier.com is pleased to offer readers the enhanced ability to comment on stories. We expect our readers to engage in lively, yet civil discourse. Postandcourier.com does not edit user submitted statements and we cannot promise that readers will not occasionally find offensive or inaccurate comments posted in the comments area. Responsibility for the statements posted lies with the person submitting the comment, not postandcourier.com. If you find a comment that is objectionable, please click "report abuse" and we will review it for possible removal. Please be reminded, however, that in accordance with our Terms of Use and federal law, we are under no obligation to remove any third party comments posted on our website.
Users can now build user-to-user connections, follow friends' recent posts, add an avatar that fits their personality, and more. If you have posted here before you'll need to sign up again, or if you've never posted before, start now by signing up!
Full terms and conditions can be read here.