USC economists: More lost jobs, higher unemployment in 2009

University of South Carolina economists said Wednesday that the Palmetto State can expect an "austere" 2009 as job opportunities decline and the unemployment rate continues to rise.

Paulo Guimarães and Douglas P. Woodward of the Moore School of Business predicted a net loss of 22,000 jobs next year. They also projected that the unemployment rate in the state will rise to 8.6 percent as they presented their forecast at USC's 28th annual Economic Outlook Conference in Columbia.

"The South Carolina data indicate that the economy is in recession, and it is unlikely that there will be improvement in the economy until at least the middle of 2009," Guimarães said.

During the past year, the construction sector in South Carolina shed 17,700 jobs, and job losses in this sector are expected to continue in 2009, with a decline of 8.3 percent. Guimarães said. Single-family housing permits are expected to be off 35.5 percent next year. This comes on the heels of a similar drop in the number of such permits in 2008.

Also, manufacturing employment is expected to keep retrenching, with a projected job decline of 4.4 percent.

Other sectors, such as government and professional and business services, also will continue to shed jobs next year, putting further pressure on the labor market, the report said.

Statewide, retail sales are projected to edge up just 0.5 percent in 2009.

"The ongoing surprises emanating from the financial sector make it difficult to forecast the trends in the real economy," said Woodward. "We will not have a recovery until the financial markets clear up and lift this cloud of uncertainty shrouding business conditions."

For more details, see Thursday's editions of The Post and Courier.