McCain leads big in South
Voters say honesty, experience, shared values important
By Roddie Burris
File/Ap
Republican candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., (left) and Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., are seen with Rick Warren (center) during the Compassion Forum at Saddleback Church, Saturday in Lake Forest, Calif.
COLUMBIA — Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain enjoys a 16-point lead — 51 percent to 35 percent — among Southern voters over rival Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a new poll by Winthrop University and ETV shows.
And, the further into the South you go, the larger McCain's lead grows, the poll of likely voters in 11 Southern states shows.
Likely voters in the Deep South — those in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina — preferred McCain by a 25-point margin, 56 percent to 31 percent.
Southern voters said what they want most in a president is honesty, experience and shared values. Southern voters rated McCain ahead of Obama in each of those categories.
McCain's strongest support comes from white working-class Southerners — who favor him by a 34-point margin — and white evangelicals — who favor the Arizonan by 54 percentage points.
The poll, which was conducted Aug. 1-17, has a margin of error of (plus or minus) 2.97 percentage points.
While political pundits have made much of Obama and Democrats trying to win over a Southern state or two from the Republicans in November, the Winthrop/ETV poll shows that will prove difficult.
"It's about keeping John McCain from sweeping the South. That's the key," said Scott Huffmon, associate professor of political science at Winthrop and director of the Winthrop/ETV Poll.
Rather than attempting to contest the presidential race across the South, a wiser strategy for Obama would be to concentrate on the closely contested Southern states, Huffmon said. "You cannot fight a regional battle anymore."
Individual state-by-state polls have shown Obama within striking distance of McCain in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia.
Those states account for 70 votes that are up for grabs. The 11 Southern states in this poll will award 161 electoral votes, and 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
On the issues, McCain trumped Obama nearly across the board in the poll.
The economy easily was the most important issue to Southern voters in the upcoming presidential election. McCain bested Obama on which candidate would handle energy and gas prices better, and who would do the better job on taxes.
McCain also far out-distanced Obama on who would do a better job of handling the Iraq war and terrorism.
None of that surprised Jeanette Smith of Chapin, S.C., who described McCain as honest and decisive, strong on national security and unlikely to be manipulated by a foreign government.
"The economy and national security are neck and neck for me," said Smith, a 54-year-old bookkeeper and mother of four. "In fact, I'm not even sure they are separate issues."
On illegal immigration, sometimes an Achilles' heel for McCain, and moral values, the four-term senior senator from Arizona again stood taller with Southern voters than Obama.
"Illegal immigration needs to be controlled," said 76-year-old Evelyn Perry of Fort Mill, S.C., who was among those surveyed. "I just haven't really understood what (McCain's position) is on that — but it needs to be controlled."
Even without those specifics, Perry said she trusts McCain more. "Overall, I just think McCain understands better."
However, in a glimmer of hope for the Democratic nominee-to-be, more likely Southern voters polled said Obama "understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives" better than McCain does.
However, Deep South and working-class white voters disagreed, saying McCain understands them best.
"Senator Obama has a great deal of work to do if he plans to turn the Southern states in his favor," said Adolphus Belk Jr., who helped design the poll and teaches political science and African-American Studies at Winthrop.
Belk said Obama has to do a better job at defining himself for voters, moving beyond simply being a new face on the national stage. Obama also has to overcome religious and ethnic misinformation that continues to plague his candidacy, Belk said.
That's no short order in the South, either, said Obama supporter John Hines Jr. of Effingham, S.C.. "For older Americans, I think color is still an issue," said the 53-year-old paper maker.
Of those polled, 86 percent said race would not be an important factor in how they choose to vote.
However, a quarter of all likely Southern voters surveyed said that if a candidate had a Muslim parent, it would impact their votes. Obama, who is a Christian, had a Muslim father.
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Comments
lillycollette (anonymous) says...
McCain does -- NOT -- have my vote.
August 22, 2008 at 4:13 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Riptide (anonymous) says...
lilly
It doesn't matter whether McCain has your vote or not. Give Obama enough exposure, people will come out and vote for McCain as a vote against Obama. Besides, this election will be determined by the swing states and South Carolina is not considered a swing state.
August 22, 2008 at 6:37 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
captivated (anonymous) says...
So all the righties will vote for a man so old and senile that he can't even remember how many houses he has. These are the same people who voted Bush back into office. Can you say 4 more years of Bush?
August 22, 2008 at 7:59 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
LocalHero (anonymous) says...
The electoral college system makes voting such a disappointment in many states. SC is one of those states. If I choose to vote for Obama (and I do) I pretty much know my vote won't count. Stupid system.
I'll vote for Obama anyway and *hope* he represents the change he suggests. McCain is too much of the same old politics that got us here in the first place. Also, age is a factor. Even if he is mentally astute now (in question) the odds that he will remain at the top of his game are not great. The pressures of the presidency are High.
August 22, 2008 at 8:34 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Marianne0558 (anonymous) says...
Since when is it news that a Republican nominee is favored by South Carolina over a Democratic nominee?
Must be a slow day.
August 22, 2008 at 9:06 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
wjhamilton3 (anonymous) says...
There are a lot of Obama Supporters here in Charleston. Several major Convention Watch Parties have been set up for next week's acceptance speech. They're open to the public and most expect a good turnout. You can find one near you on the Obama website. I went to a little Obama cookout in Mt. Pleasant in June where 40 people showed up and it was one of five local events that weekend. It was SRO at the last East Cooper Democrats meeting. The Democrat candidate for Congress, Ketner, has raised over a million dollars to run against Brown.
I understand the militarism and racism of South Carolina, so Obama is going to have a hard time here. SC wants an old white man who is happy to bomb people who are different from us. SC's has had this complex since we lost the Civil War. My anscestors fought for the South in that War and our family paid a very high price in the number of members killed, maimed or financially ruined by the Civil War. In the end they and their former slaves were utterly impoverished, so they sharecropped together until they finally all gave up and left the Pee Dee and the land had become almost worthless.
I'm used to voting for candidates that lose, but I would rather do that than vote for candidates who are throwing the future of our country away.
My family couldn't beat the Yankees into submission, because they couldn't lick them 10 to 1. They generally managed to beat the Union Army when the odds were 2 to 1. There are 300 million Americans in a world of Six Billion people. That is 20 to 1.
If you believe we can bully the world into serving our interests as if this were 1948, you're going to be disappointed. I'm sure SC would like to try. We didn't learn much from the one war we started. If Sherman couldn't beat a lesson into SC about the costs of overestimating your capacity to impose your will on others, I doubt I can.
However, had we sat down and worked something out which increased the hope and dignity of everyone involved, the last century in SC might have been much better for my family and the people they owned. They didn't hate each other. The war didn't solve the basic problems or racism and it didn't preserve the system. It did what nearly all wars do, created poverty, ignorance and fear.
We really need a better solution to most of our problems than oppressing, exploiting and killing other people. I'm all for a national defense when we have to, but something smarter and more careful is called for.
Our government of tired old men in SC isn't going to learn anything and the world, fast, smart and inclusive is going to run over us and our kids.
August 22, 2008 at 9:47 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
drp7773 (anonymous) says...
I guess Hussein is running out of groups to promise to give them anything they want. No wonder the numbers are going down. McCain was not my first choice or even in the top 10 but there is no way I can cast a vote for obamalamadingdong, and NO it has nothing to do with his race, it's about his , preacher, the way he lies, his lets tax everyone and thing then give it away in more programs, very little to no experience (not as president) but as a leader in any fashion, he has shown that he is a follower in many wrong directions and choices. And since Elvis is not in town :) to vote for I guess McCain will have to do.
August 22, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tc1 (anonymous) says...
"Obama made 4 million this year and, bought a million dollar house. Where is his Robin Hood approach now, take form the MIDDLE CLASS and give to the poor? It's a different story when it's his money"
You forgot the questionable loan deal for the house and the vacant lot next to it. But, that is understandable since it only is mentioned if the media is forced by the Enquirer:)
I am a conservative white male and I would vote for Condi Rice in a second. She appears to come from the same mold as Margarat Thatcher(SP?). I don't believe she would "go wobbly" on us.
August 22, 2008 at 11:52 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
scconservative (anonymous) says...
The Obama/Liberal bootlickers just can't help themselves. They defame patriotism, the US Military, the US Constitution and all that disagree with their neo-socialism. If they hate this country so much, I suggest they go to one of their favorite places, Cuba, Venezula, Red China, the new Russia, Mexico, California, Mass, Illinois or any of those failed Democrat run cities.
Quit trying to change this country into another failed false utopia.
August 22, 2008 at 12:06 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
scconservative (anonymous) says...
This poll was designed by Adolphus Belk Jr. who teaches political science and African-American Studies...a true blue Obama supporter and still showed McCain with + 25%. I would bet the real results are much worse for Obama. And think that this poll was done before the Rev. Warren's little confab where BO stunk up the place.
The BO southern strategy to pick off even 1 southern state appears to be finished....better try something else, maybe they can get the German/EU & Palestinian vote legalized before the election.
August 22, 2008 at 12:21 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Buffy1 (anonymous) says...
It is so telling of the Dems true character, or lack thereof, that the man-child they have nominated supports infanticide. The Messiah/Obama voted against the Babies Born Alive Act not once, not twice, but THREE times. This bill would have mandated that if an abortion is botched, and the baby is born alive, as in separates from the mother, that the doctor must administer medical treatment to the baby. Hilary, Nancy Pelosi, and even TED KENNEDY voted for this bill, and they are the most pro-abortion senators there are, but Obama voted AGAINST it- THREE TIMES! Twice in Illinois Senate and once in the U.S. Senate!
http://www.nrlc.org/federal/Born_Aliv...
Nurses Testify About "Live Birth Abortions"
On July 20, the House Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee, which Canady chairs, held a public hearing on the bill. Among the witnesses were two nurses who said they had observed live-born babies who were left to die following "live birth abortions" performed at Christ Hospital in Oak Lawn, Illinois.
The nurses described abortions involving unborn babies from 16 to 23 weeks prenatal development. One of the nurses, Jill Stanek, said that a "live birth abortion" is performed by using a drug to cause the cervix (the opening to the womb) to dilate, after which "the small, preterm baby drops out of the uterus, oftentimes alive." She said that such abortions sometimes were performed to kill babies who had Down's Syndrome and spina bifida, neither of which is itself usually a lethal condition.
"It is not uncommon for one of these live aborted babies to linger for an hour or two or even longer," she explained. "One of them once lived for almost eight hours." She said that some such babies were taken to a "soiled utility room" to die.
A former nurse at the same facility, Allison Baker, testified that she personally witnessed three babies who had been born alive during such abortions.
On the first occasion, "I happened to walk into a >soiled utility room' and saw, lying on a medical counter, a [22-week] fetus, naked, exposed and breathing, moving its arms and legs. The fetus was visibly alive, and was gasping for breath. . . . I did wrap the fetus and place him in a warmer and for 22 hours he maintained a heartbeat, and then finally expired," she said.
Also testifying in support of the bill was Gianna Jessen, who survived an attempted abortion 23 years ago.
A saline solution was injected into the womb of Jessen's mother, who was seven months pregnant. "I remained in the solution for approximately 18 hours and was delivered alive on April 6, 1977, at 6:00 a.m. in a California abortion clinic," Jessen said. "I should be blind, burned -- I should be dead. And yet, I live. Due to lack of oxygen supply during the abortion, I live with cerebral palsy."
August 22, 2008 at 12:35 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
crankyyankee (anonymous) says...
The one thing I can't get past as far as BO goes, is what Country is his wife proud of? We all know she has never been proud of the USA because she tells us so, but what Country would she like to see the USA fashion itself after? That is a question that would tell me more about BO than all the hand wringing liberals and media hype have! She sure has been silent lately! As I've said before why would anyone want to change this Country? Isn't it the envy of the world as it is? I guess if you have not worked for anything in your life and have no plans to work for anything in the future, someone who promises everything will be provided without any strings looks pretty good to you. As Winston Churchill once said "If you are not a liberal when your young you don't have a heart and if you are not a conservative when you are old you don't have a brain!" That would explain why liberals are usually young or brainless or both.
August 22, 2008 at 12:50 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Riptide (anonymous) says...
It looks like Barack Obama has a younger brother living in poverty. His average income is something like a dollar a month. Hey Barack can you spare a dime for your brother in Africa?
August 22, 2008 at 12:54 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
oatka (anonymous) says...
"That's no short order in the South, either, said Obama supporter John Hines Jr. of Effingham, S.C.. "For older Americans, I think color is still an issue," said the 53-year-old paper maker."
Yup. I wonder how many black people, older or otherwise, will vote for Obama just 'cuz he's black?
Obama is fading because the electorate is realizing that he is just the political version of Milli Vanilli.
For those who decry the Electoral College, imagine what the hue and cry would be if either Obama or McCain won the popluar vote by the same margin as Bush in Florida? Does anyone want that event writ large after any presidential election?
August 22, 2008 at 1:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
iceman1978 (anonymous) says...
I wish the Republicans could find someone like Barry Goldwater or Teddy Roosevelt and I wish the Democrats could find someone like John F. Kennedy. I don't care for either one of these two but will probably end up voting for McCain.
August 22, 2008 at 4:46 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
tc1 (anonymous) says...
crankyyankee,
After Obama's praise of China yesterday maybe that's her model. Could be she is being kept quiet because she is going to make Hillary look like the perfect angel if they get to the Whitehouse.
August 22, 2008 at 5:10 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
charlestonnative1963 (anonymous) says...
I will never vote for a Republican again as long as I live. Bush was enough for me...in the mean time...our state money is depleted because of this awful economy. The classrooms are packed (24 to 1 for first grade) Threre goes the gains we made. Go ahead vote in another Bush... and be broke in a year
August 22, 2008 at 8:25 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
charlestonnative1963 (anonymous) says...
I agree , SC will never vote for Obama because he is black...I could care less- I only care that the threats of beng riffted from my job would stop. I blame Republicans for this economy 100% By the way I am white....
August 22, 2008 at 8:31 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
americanheretic (anonymous) says...
S.C. will always be the same stupid backwater that keeps it in the place it's in, Listen to um yap-dumb as dirt!
August 23, 2008 at 10:09 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Dis (anonymous) says...
If some of you elect your local officials with the same mindset that you speak of here in voting for president, it explains why SC is constantly at or near the bottom of every quality of life statistical category.
As a registered independent, I always vote for the most qualified person, which in this case means the best decision maker to guide us through the global economic challenges we currently face. In no way does McCain makes the cut. His service to this country is by no means a birthright to be president. Also his years of service in Congress do not make him more qualified to be president. And his lack of knowledge of the economy, his poor global diplomatic skills, and his out of touch mentality of everyday issues that affect ordinary Americans is more than enough for any open-minded thoughtful voter to disqualify him as a serious candidate. Obama was not my first choice either (ironically, out of all of the initial candidates, Republican or Democrat, his VP pick, Biden, was my favorite). However, after looking at both Obama's and McCain's pluses and minuses objectively and without bias, Obama will be a much better choice.
Someone made a comment about how Obama will raise their taxes. I have news for you: If you don't consider $4.00 a gallon gas, etc. due to a failed foreign policy plan (Iraq) an indirect punitive tax, you probably would not understand that whoever is our next president is going to raise your actual taxes, no matter what. At some point, the billions we are spending each month on "the war" has to be paid, the Bush "tax cuts" which never trickled down to the average worker will have to be resolved, the government that has significantly increased its size under the Republican administration will have to be funded. And oh, don't forget about the wonderful "stimulus checks" which did not do what it was intended to do. Obama at least had the honesty to say that taxes may likely have to increase, because the Bush administration expenses listed above has to be paid for. McCain continues say he won't raise taxes--which illustrates that his grasp of economics is so poor he doesn't realize that there is no other viable solution. His solution-invade Iran and/or Russia (and further increase our national debt with no benefits to the American people-like Iraq).
You would think that after 8 years of incompetence, most people would be smart enough not to go down the same path due to their perception of liberalism, conservatism, or whatever "ism" is driving their biases, and make more practical decisions about their next president. Maybe $4.00 to $4.50 a gallon gas wasn't enough to get some people's attention.
Sorry, I'll take the realistic solution to hard problems (which may be raising taxes due to mismanagement of the federal government by the Bush administration) instead of a fake solution (tax free holiday on gas) any day. Obama is a better choice.
August 23, 2008 at 11:10 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
iceman1978 (anonymous) says...
Bush is a disgrace to everything that conservatism once stood for. One of my posts from a different message board:
-----
I'm not sure what to make of McCain but I consider the Bush administration to be one of the most incompetent and corrupt in US history. Bush isn't a conservative. He's a neo-conservative which is a perversion of everything true conservatism stands for.
He hasn't secured the borders of this country. We're being flooded with illegal immigration on a scale not seen in recent memory and it's breaking our public services. Anyone who works in the schools and hospitals in places like Texas and Arizona is well aware of this. A true conservative would see this for what it is: an unarmed invasion and a dereliction of duty of the part of our elected officials. A neo-conservative will be more busy making sure that big business gets cheap labor and that our border patrol agents are sent to prison for doing their jobs.
In invading Iraq he disrupted a power balance in the Middle East that existed between Iraq and Iran, which has now laid the groundwork for Iran to politically dominate the region. For the past thirty years our policy in the Middle East has focused on one issue, and that was keeping Iran in check. This by the way, was the very reason that Bush I choose not to continue into Baghdad in Desert Storm. The neo-conservatives who have led this nation into what is seemingly a war without end are nothing more than frat boys who have probably never fired a gun in their life. They send our military in with too few troops, not enough equipment, and then haul them into the courts when they do their job to the best of their abilities.
Getting away from my main points, but you want to know how I would handle the war on terror?
One: Take no prisoners when it comes to the Taliban. That's where our main concern is because that's where bin Laden is. The Taliban are also a threat to Pakistan if you want my opinion. These people are throwbacks to the age of barbarianism and they pose a very grave danger to every civilized nation on this planet. The only proper way to deal with such scum is to tie them to a fence post, shoot them, and leave them there.
August 23, 2008 at 1:23 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
iceman1978 (anonymous) says...
(contd)
Two: Secure the country. Make no mistake about it. Sept 11th would not have happened when people like J. Edgar Hoover ran the FBI and the Dulles brothers ran the CIA. For all their faults they knew how to keep the country safe during periods of tension such as the second world war when it was known that Nazi sabateurs had infiltrated the nation. They knew how to find these people. Unfortunately we don't seem to have people like this anymore. What I would do is gather the leaders of the five families in this country and lay everything out for them. Tell them that we are at war and we are in a war for our very survival. If we lose, we're done for. Do you really think the mafia would want to live under the Taliban or a Taliban-like dictatorship? Do you think they would want to live under the constant threat of terrorism? Of course not, it would be bad for business. Ask them how they would handle the security of the country. I'm sure that people like the Bonannos or the Gambinos would know exactly who to shake down in order to locate and destroy terror cells.
Three: Put together an enemies list. Any charitable and/or civil rights organization that is suspected of having links to terrorism should be subject to RICO investigations. On day one I would have the entire leadership of the Council for American-Islamic Relations taken into custody and put on a plane to be interrogated overseas.
By the way, what ever happened to the hunt for Osama bin Laden? Oh..that's right. They have Bush on tape saying he doesn't know where the guy is and doesn't think about it very much.
Despite his claim on being a fiscal conservative his fiscal policy has caused the national debt to skyrocket to nearly $10 trillion.
Under Bernanke, the Bush appointee to the Federal Reserve, interest rates have been lowered despite record deficits. This has caused the US Dollar to decline in value relative to other currencies and has been the main cause of high oil prices as investors will use oil as a hedge against inflation.
The neo-conservative will look at salmonella cases and the rising cases of food poisoning and still believe that the FDA is government intrusion and that having the American public eat imported road kill from a Chinese highway is free trade. The true conservative, such as Teddy Roosevelt who ordered a Congressional investigation into the meatpacking industry after reading Upton Sinclair's 'The Jungle', realizes that regulations are necessary to ensure safety.
And finally, Bush has absolutely no right to call himself a conservative when it was under his administration that we are sending tens of billions to Africa to fight AIDS. Meanwhile we've got people right here in this country who struggle to pay for prescription medication and manage to keep the lights on. I find this to be criminal and it makes my blood boil each time I think about my tax dollars going overseas like this.
August 23, 2008 at 1:24 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
gneubeck (anonymous) says...
The Clintons are ecstatic over Obama's pick of "Jawbone" Biden as his VP. A man who can speak eloquently ad-nauseam while saying absolutely nothing of substance. The McCain camp will certainly exploit Biden's former prolific praise of McCain; his multiple assertions that Obama was not sufficiently experienced to assume the Presidency; and, who correctly noted that the White House was not the proper venue for Obama's: "On-The-Job-Training". Obviously Obama was smart enough to recognize that he needed a "Handler" close-by 24/7. The Clinton's, astute in the way of politics, will simply re-enforce their base of supporters in preparation for a now certain 2012 bid. Greg Neubeck
August 23, 2008 at 1:30 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
sgtpsycho (anonymous) says...
1- Tire Gauge Man's citizenship has never been fully proven.
2- Muslim tradition is that a son born of a Muslim is a Muslim.
3- The Muslim extremists are highly sophisticated in tactics, strategy, cyber and Humint. The common stereotypes of them as a bunch of ignorant desert bedos are exactly what they want the West to believe.
4- The Ba'ath Party in the Levant originated as a secular socialist movement with Islamic religious values left
intact; hence their alliance with the former Soviet Union as a hedge against European hegemony.
5- The dominant news media in this country is dominated by a Marxist or Statist philosophy.
6- Tire Gauge Man's alliance with the Nation of Islam and Communist weatherman Bill Ayers needs no further explanation.
7- If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck. We are witnessing a possible attempted overthrow of the Republic by Statist elements of the "Democratic" Party. Radical Islam and Communism may be strange bedfellows, but History is rife with many strange alliances.
8- A Clear and Present Danger may now exist to the National Security of the United States. Evil never takes a Holiday; committed communists will never, ever, give up. You also cannot reason with a man willing to blow himself up for a Cause.
"We will bury you..." Nikita Kruschev
"The Marines are at war; America is at the Mall."
August 23, 2008 at 5:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
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