Iraq surge is working

Reports from Iraq about reduced casualties and al-Qaida's fading presence, even taken with a grain of salt, tend to bear out claims by the military command made in congressional testimony last month that the surge is a success.

When Gen. David Petraeus appeared before Congress, he reported that Iraqi civilian casualties had declined because of the military surge ordered by President Bush. His claim was challenged by critics and a congressional study suggesting that the military's numbers were wrong.

Now it seems that the critics of Gen. Petraeus were the ones who got it wrong. According to both the Iraqi Health Ministry and The Associated Press, civilian deaths in September were 77 percent less than in the same month last year, and 52 percent less than in August 2007. The Washington Post reports that the civilian death rate continued to decline in the first two weeks of October. U.S. military killed in action peaked this year in May at 121, according to figures by the Brookings institution. In September the number was 43, down also from August, when the number was 75. During the Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan last year 97 U.S. soldiers died in combat. This year's total for all but two days of Ramadan was 36.

A major cause of the decline may be success in combating al-Qaida in Iraq. The al-Qaida organization is led by foreigners and fueled by suicide volunteers who also mainly come from other countries. But it has relied on Iraqi sympathizers to support its operations. That has changed in the past year, with Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar Province and other areas turning against al-Qaida. That has led to the capture of many al-Qaida leaders and a decline in the number of suicide volunteers reaching Iraq. The Post reports that Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the number two U.S. military commander in Iraq, recently estimated that al-Qaida's capabilities have been "degraded" by 60 to 70 percent.

A word of caution is in order. At some point U.S. forces will be reduced as Iraqi forces take over. That could tempt al-Qaida to increase its attacks. Even at 30 to 40 percent of its strength at the height of the insurgency, al-Qaida remains capable of doing great harm. Although the number of car bomb attacks has been halved from 60 a month in January to around 30 a month since July, each attack still produces mass casualties, and the targets are still boldly chosen. But the trends are positive. The challenge to Congress and to the next president will be to avoid snatching the chance of victory from the table by making a premature reduction in U.S. forces.