Turkey's future filled with peril

Hence, in all likelihood, tyranny takes its rise from no other form of government than democracy, the most complete and most intolerable despotism following, as I believe, the extremist liberty.

— Plato, The Republic

I've been bemused by commentary about the current situation in Turkey. The consensus seems to be that the overriding interest of the United States is that democracy there, as in Iraq, must prevail regardless of the character of the governments elected.

Hitler was "democratically" elected chancellor in Germany, as was the lunatic Ahmadinejad, now president of Iran, to cite mistakes less than enlightened electorates sometimes make. It is very difficult for Americans to accept that free and honest elections might result in political power being placed in the hands of those who have no intention of ever relinquishing it. "One vote, one time" is a mantra repeated many times in history.

The most Western-oriented Muslim country, Turkey is now governed by the Islamist Justice and Development Party (the AKP) headed by Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan. He touched off a political firestorm recently when he nominated his Islamist foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, for president. That office possesses the key political power to veto legislation.

The AKP has 353 out of 550-seats in parliament. Like many other multi-party systems in the world, the fragmented nature of the electoral process in Turkey has put in power a government that does not reflect a majority of voters, only a plurality. The political divide in Turkey is largely between a secular, educated and relatively well-off urban population and a rural one increasingly mesmerized by the preaching of radical mullahs to whom reforms instituted three-quarters of a century ago by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk are an affront to Islam.

Ataturk created modern Turkey. He changed the written language from Arabic script to a modified Latin alphabet. He replaced harsh Sharia law with the Swiss civil code. He ordered radical changes in what Turkish men and women wore. He liberated women from the subservient roles they played in Islamic society. He decreed strict separation of mosque and state. His statues and brooding portraits are displayed in every city, town and hamlet. His reforms have never undergone serious challenge — until now.

Demonstrations against the Erdogan government and its attempt to install an Islamist president brought hundreds of thousands of people into the streets of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya and other major cities. General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of staff of the Turkish army, warned Erdogan not to push his agenda too far. The army, self-anointed defender of the secular republic, four times in the latter half of the 20th century overthrew elected Turkish governments it considered threatening to the republic and constitution.

Under the constitution, the president was to have been chosen by a two-thirds vote in parliament (367 of the 550 members), and Gul's election at first was seen as a mere formality. Opposition parties, however, boycotted sessions of parliament. An appeal to the constitutional court upheld the secularists' contention that, in the absence of a quorum, there could be no election. Gul subsequently withdrew his candidacy. Prime Minister Erdogan, however, was not finished.

With the support of the splinter Motherland Party, Erdogan had the constitution amended (by a two-thirds vote in parliament, a vote not subject to judicial review). The amendment changed the method of electing the president and the length of his term in office. The choice is now to be made by a popular vote scheduled for July 22.

Gul announced he would run in this election, claiming support of "70 percent" of the people. If Gul does win and the AKP takes total control, the portents are not good for either Turkey or the West, particularly for the United States. It is very much in our interest that Turkey remains a secular state, and that this NATO member not go the way of Iran.

It seems clear that the European Union, rightly concerned by its huge unassimilated Muslim minority, is not about to welcome millions more Muslim immigrants from Turkey. (Erdogan is a strong advocate of Turkish membership in the EU.)

It seems equally clear that Turkish patience is wearing thin with repeated acts of terrorism by the Kurdish PKK from sanctuaries in neighboring Iraq. Just last week, Erdogan publicly gave a green light to the army for cross-border attacks on the PKK if the attacks don't end.

The situation is fraught with peril for U.S. interests and for the broader war on terror. A military coup, an Islamist Turkey, or a revolution all are distinct possibilities.

R.L. Schreadley, a former Post and Courier executive editor, has made more than 15 trips to Turkey.