Five questions about Monday's presidential debate

As The Citadel prepared to host Charleston's first-ever presidential debate, Post and Courier political reporter Robert Behre talked with several political science professors to get their sense of what's at stake. All eight Democratic candidates — Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, former Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson — are set to face off at 7 p.m. Monday, live on CNN.

1. Who has the most to gain from Monday's debate?

DuBose Kapeluck, political science professor at The Citadel, said Edwards could be viewed as having the most to gain. "He has the most to gain to revive a rather sagging campaign so far," Kapeluck said. "He's the only native Southerner, and he's in a Southern location, which might be good. His accent will play well here, and he might seem more comfortable in Charleston."

That said, lesser-known candidates might have the most to gain if they deliver a solid performance, said College of Charleston political science professor Bill Moore. "People know Obama. People know Hillary. People know John Edwards," Moore said. "The one candidate I truly think has the potential to emerge out of that second tier is Bill Richardson."

Adam Warber, political science professor at Clemson University, said Obama might have the most to gain because it's a chance for him to build on the momentum he already has by raising the most money of all presidential candidates during the past three months.

"I think voters will be paying more attention to him because he's a serious contender," Warber said.

2. Which candidate has the most to lose?

Almost everyone agrees that Clinton, as the frontrunner, is in a sort of no-win position. If she delivers a solid performance, she simply remains the frontrunner. If she were to stumble, that's another story.

To some extent, the same is also true of Edwards and Obama. "Slips are more likely to negatively affect frontrunners," Moore said. "People don't pay much attention to those in the a back of the pack right now."

Warber said he's not sure any candidate has much to lose, but he adds that Clinton's campaign probably wishes the campaign were shorter. "You have had this campaign drawn out so early, and she's been ahead in the polls for some time," he said. "It looks like, by all indications, she's doing strong still and they've not been able to chip away from her very much."

3. Who will be watching?

Most agree the Democratic faithful will be the debate's primary audience, and many of them already have made up their minds.

"On the Democratic side in particular, a large percentage have already committed themselves," Moore said. "It's not like the Republican side, where 'none of the above' leads the polls."

Because the debate is being held in Charleston, the audience can be expected to include a proportionately larger share of potential South Carolina voters.

"I think it's going to be heavily watched in the Lowcountry and perhaps in all of South Carolina," Kapeluck said. "This novel idea of soliciting questions through YouTube is unorthodox, and you're going to get some questions that aren't quite as canned as you normally find at these debates. I think that's going to be a draw."

Warber says the format — submitting questions through Internet site YouTube — might stir more interest among younger voters, "but I don't know at this point. I think if this were in the fall, it would generate more interest among college students."

4. What questions will be asked?

When the Democratic candidates held their first debate in Orangeburg in April, Iraq dominated much of the discussion. Don't expect that to happen this time.

Monday's debate will feature questions posed by ordinary people, submitted by video through YouTube. CNN's producers have said they've received relatively few questions about Iraq and more about health care, Social Security and other issues that hit home for the person asking the question.

Warber said he expects the questions —as in other debates — to touch on many topics, "but since you're asking average folks to do this, they may be picking more policy issues that concern them, more issues in the domestic realm."

Kapeluck agrees. "Since these questions are prerecorded, it allows the people asking the questions to say things he or she might feel uncomfortable saying live, standing up in a crowd. You may get questions that are more personal in nature."

5. How much of this will matter Jan. 29, when South Carolina's Democratic voters go to the polls?

Warber said the candidates have been well-prepared for earlier debates and have avoided any major gaffes. "You're not seeing the poll numbers after the previous debates shifting that much either," he said. "But there could always be a surprise."

"I think this is a blip on the radar," Moore said. "By the time the South Carolina primary is held, several of these candidates will not be in the race. They will have withdrawn by that time. You may have even one of the three top candidates out. It's a long way to the South Carolina primary, and this is just a small step."

Monday's debate might not end up being as significant as how the candidates fare in the first primary and caucus battles, but Kapeluck said it will continue the winnowing process.

"This debate is not as important as later ones, but you've got to remember the pivotal nature of the South Carolina primary," he said. "This will be a good one that will set the tone for how well the candidates are received here."