Convention a threat to state GOP clout?

When Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback stopped by Mount Pleasant recently, he mentioned the possibility that next year's primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and dozens of other states might not produce a clear winner.

He also said Republicans might not settle on a nominee until they convene in Minnesota in September 2008.

'You could actually have a convention that was interesting,' the Kansas senator said.

Ever since the 1960s, political conventions have been little more than well- orchestrated television productions that let each party's presidential candidate, and other party leaders, address a national audience.

Most experts expect the same next year, but they also acknowledge the evenness of the field, especially on the GOP side, which makes the prospect of a lively convention more likely than in previous years.

Clemson political science professor Dave Woodard fully expects the parties to have chosen their nominees by February. If one doesn't - and the Republican race is more wide open at this point - then that would pose all sorts of problems, beginning with interparty fighting during the summer months rather than a focus on the other party's nominee. Woodard said the party also would suffer

from the appearance of confusion and disarray at the convention itself.

'If the Republicans go to the convention deadlocked, their goose is cooked,' he said. 'I don't see how they can recover.'

A deadlocked convention also could weaken South Carolina's clout because state Republicans currently stand to lose half their delegates because they moved up their primary date.

S.C. Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson said he expects this winter's primaries to decide who will win, and he expects South Carolina will continue to side with the ultimate winner.

He said he 'can't imagine' a deadlocked convention, but added, 'Stranger things have happened in Republican party politics.'

The last such battle occurred in 1968. That's when Vice President Hubert Humphrey arrived at the Democratic convention in Chicago with more delegates than he needed. But it was concern about his position on the Vietnam War, as well as nearby protests, that raised questions about whether some supporters would defect. Humphrey ultimately won the nomination but lost to Republican Richard Nixon.

This year, South Carolina Republicans moved up their primary date to Jan. 19 to increase their influence in the process. But if it comes down to a convention, the strategy could backfire.

That's because South Carolina Republicans' decision to set their primary date before Feb. 5 means it is supposed to lose half of its 47 delegates to the convention. Dawson said South Carolina's GOP already was supposed to lose half its delegates because it originally set its primary for Feb. 2. The party faced no extra penalty for moving its date to the current January date, and Dawson said it will protest its proposed loss of delegates 'when the time comes.'

Some state GOP delegates are committed to vote for whoever gets the most votes across the state. Others are committed to vote for whoever wins in one of the state's six congressional districts. Should the first ballot not be conclusive, the delegates can vote for whomever they choose during the second round.

If the state can't recoup its full slate of delegates, Woodard said South Carolina Republicans might not pump as much money toward the eventual GOP nominee.

'That could be really critical, because for Republicans, South Carolina is a donor state. It donates money to the (GOP) winner because it's taken for granted as a base Republican state,' he said.

Reach Robert Behre at rbehre@postandcourier.com or 937-5771.