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It's been a quiet start to a hurricane season that is forecast to be quiet, and forecasters don't see that changing soon.
The first little blip for the Lowcountry, a storm system, is expected to drop off the coast Saturday and meander between South Carolina and Georgia through Sunday before drifting south, according to the National Weather Service, Charleston. A similar stalled storm offshore in 2004 spun up into Hurricane Gaston in only a few days. But on Thursday, forecasting computers were not calling for that to happen.
The chance of rain is about 50 percent Saturday, but how much rain the system brings to Charleston depends on just where it sets up, said meteorologist Wendy Sellers, National Weather Service, Charleston.
Forecasters are keeping an eye on it, but "at this point, nobody is really calling for anything tropical," she said.
At least one hurricane prediction group called for an increased chance for the East Coast to see hurricanes develop from these storm systems this year.
No Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have formed so far this season - a change from last year when two tropical storms had formed by June 17 and a third followed July 7. But the quiet start is more typical, said Gerry Bell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. On the average, only one or two storms form through July.
"Right now atmospheric conditions are not conducive for a hurricane to form," he said. "Tropical waves coming off of Africa are too weak and too far south to develop into tropical storms, and there is cool, dry air and sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic."
The national Climate Prediction Center global hazards outlook indicates conditions won't be conducive to a tropical storm for the next two weeks, Bell said.
Reach Bo Petersen at 937-5744, @bopete on twitter or Bo Petersen Reporting on Facebook.
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