The next blast from the tropics this year will be a lot like the last: nothing much.

But a storm system winding through the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday is expected to make United States landfall in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, possibly as Tropical Storm Karen. Its remnants would pass to the west of the Lowcountry from Sunday evening into Monday morning.

Rain would be the worst the Charleston area is likely to experience from this storm, agreed forecasters from the National Weather Service, Charleston and the S.C. Climate Office. There is an isolated chance of a tornado.

Even the rain would be lighter in the Lowcountry than farther inland, an inch or less, said Mark Malsick, severe weather liaison of the climate office.

The actual effects will depend on just how far west the storm tracks, Malsick and weather service forecasters said.

“Rain, if it’s going to affect us at all. We’ll be on the east side of the storm, so we’re always on the look out for the possibility of severe weather,” said weather service meteorologist Steve Rowley.