FCS teams are improving, but don't expect an upset

  • Travis Haney
  • Posted: Saturday, October 3, 2009 12:01 a.m.
    UPDATED: Thursday, March 22, 2012 6:48 p.m.
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Despite this fumble by former South Carolina quarterback Blake Mitchell, the Gamecocks had little trouble during a 38-3 win over South Carolina State in 2007.
/File/APDespite this fumble by former South Carolina quarterback Blake Mitchell, the Gamecocks had little trouble during a 38-3 win over South Carolina State in 2007.

COLUMBIA -- Is it just your imagination, or are FCS teams closing the gap between themselves and FBS teams?

(If you prefer the throwback terminology, fine, is the gap narrowing between Division I-A and I-AA teams?)

The answer, likely, is yes and no. How conclusive and definitive, right?

But consider the complexity of the question, illustrated by the number of schools alone.

Examining it, South Carolina State coach Buddy Pough says the sport's big dogs have come back to the pack -- somewhat, anyway -- because of gradual scholarship reductions.

Pough's Bulldogs (3-0), who made it to the FCS playoffs last year after a 26-year hiatus, travel to play at South

Carolina (3-1) today (7 p.m., ESPN Classic).

Pough says FCS teams are capable of FBS upsets, but they become incredibly rare when considering top 25 teams. And Pough says he's thinks of the Gamecocks, receiving votes in both polls, as essentially at that level.

"It would be great if we could go in there and hang tough," he said, "but let's face it. Those guys are pretty dadgum salty. They're really good."

You do see FCS upsets of FBS teams that are down.

William & Mary and Richmond beat ACC teams (Virginia and Duke, respectively) on the same weekend this season. Another ACC team, Maryland, had to rally the following week to defeat James Madison in overtime.

Remember, though, that James Madison, Richmond and William & Mary are among the very best FCS teams this season.

This discussion, of course, wouldn't be complete without Appalachian State's upset of Michigan to begin the 2007 season. That victory (briefly) vaulted the Mountaineers into the polls and launched a love affair with FCS underdogs.

Spurrier isn't necessarily looking at the big picture when he says it'll be a "dogfight" between the Gamecocks and Bulldogs. And he's said it a lot this week.

He's referring more to USC's inability to blow out anyone, an idea he started regularly floating a couple of weeks ago.

The Gamecocks have played three FCS teams since Spurrier took over in 2005: Wofford in 2006 and 2008, and S.C. State in 2007.

USC won those games by an average of 17 points, including 10- and seven-point victories against Wofford and its tough-to-defend option. It did dispatch S.C. State 38-3 two seasons ago in the schools' first meeting.

"We just are not an explosive team," Spurrier said, when asked if FCS teams had improved since he started his college career at Duke. "We keep hoping to be someday. I think that's the biggest thing right there."

Put it this way: When coaches could choose which game to suspend cornerback C.C. Whitlock, they went with Florida Atlantic over S.C. State.

Back to the more general thought, the Sagarin ratings -- one of the computer systems used in the BCS formula -- are a good gauge for possible FCS improvement.

Sagarin, affiliated with USA Today, allows FCS teams to mingle with FBS teams in his rating system.

Look at the average of the five highest-rated FCS teams -- the ones that would likely have the best chances against FBS teams -- from 2000-08.

The range is 49 (2004) to 86.6 (2005). The fact that the high and low comes in consecutive years tells you that FCS success fluctuates from season to season.

Three teams were in the top 50 in 2004. None were in the top 50 the following season.

But since posting that high, the teams have been an average of 62 (2006), 63.4 (2007) and 56 (2008), which does suggest slight and steady improvement.

Richmond (41) and James Madison (45) were both top-50 teams at the end of the 2008 season.

So far this season, Northern Iowa (49) is the only top-50 team. Richmond (69), Montana (72), James Madison (81) and William & Mary (82) are the other top-100 teams. But it's early.

As for S.C. State, it's obvious that Pough and the Bulldogs have gotten better in the past decade or so.

The Bulldogs improved by an average of 9.6 positions each season from 2000-08 -- going from 218th to 140th. There was only one season, 2006, in which S.C. State went backward in the ratings compared to the season before.

Still, Pough is slow-playing his team's chances here tonight. He said Spurrier was being generous to presume it would be a "down-to-the-wire game."

"He's supposed to say nice things. He's leading the lambs to the slaughter," Pough joked, before stepping into reality. "To be perfectly honest, it can happen. It just doesn't happen very often against the top teams. That's what we've got here."

Reach Travis Haney at thaney@postandcourier.com and check out the South Carolina blog at www.postandcourier.com/weblogs/gamecocks.