Tropical Storm Dorian faces cutting shear winds, sapping dry air and an uncertain future.

That’s how forecasters read weather conditions and how the computer model appears on Thursday, as the storm moved through the mid-Atlantic on a track toward the Bahamas.

“Right now, it doesn’t look we’re going to have a huge impact. But the computer models could change. We’re watching it,” said meteorologist Emily Timte, with the National Weather Service, Charleston.

“The environment will not support increased intensification of this 60 mph storm,” said Mark Malsick, severe weather liaison for the S.C. Climate Office. “Several models are suggesting Dorian weakens to a weak wave early next week north of Puerto Rico.”

The storm is on track to reach the Bahamas on Tuesday. It has some sustained winds at 60 mph which could increase to 70 mph over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported. It is still well out to sea in the mid-Atlantic.

Dorian is an “early” Cape Verde storm. The Cape Verde season, named for the islands off west Africa, usually runs from mid-August into October. The period is the heart of the hurricane year, when tropical cyclones tend to form off the African coast and turn into powerful hurricanes as they cross the Atlantic. Those storms pose the greatest threat to the Southeast.

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